C. Ugo Carabelli, with a career baseline win percentage around 56% on hard courts, faces a challenging trajectory. Currently, he is trending downward, his recent performances failing to capitalize on his potential. His Elo rating suggests he sits in the lower tier of the ATP rankings, indicating a need for improvement as he navigates through Wimbledon.
Carabelli's last five matches tell a story of missed opportunities: he has not secured a win since late May, suffering losses against players like Andrey Rublev and Matija Bellucci. With a recent draw against J. Pinnington Jones highlighting his inability to close out tight matchups, the upcoming fixture against D. Merida Aguilar may test his resolve further against an opponent who has also struggled recently.
Match results: C. Ugo Carabelli
25 Jun 2026Exhibition Boodles Challenge
C. Ugo Carabelli
M. Bellucci
12
61
36
1113
L
22 Jun 2026ATP Eastbourne
J. Pinnington Jones
C. Ugo Carabelli
00
L
27 May 2026ATP French Open
C. Ugo Carabelli
A. Rublev
12
16
61
36
L
25 May 2026ATP French Open
E. Nava
C. Ugo Carabelli
02
36
36
W
21 May 2026ATP Hamburg
A. Kovacevic
C. Ugo Carabelli
20
64
62
L
20 May 2026ATP Hamburg
C. Ugo Carabelli
F. Tiafoe
20
W
18 May 2026ATP Hamburg
K. Majchrzak
C. Ugo Carabelli
12
61
26
36
W
15 May 2026Valencia
C. Ugo Carabelli
M. Kecmanovic
02
16
16
L
14 May 2026Valencia
C. Ugo Carabelli
M. Berrettini
10
64
W
6 May 2026ATP Rome
C. Ugo Carabelli
A. Shevchenko
12
36
64
L
D. Merida Aguilar
Player Overview
D. Merida Aguilar is currently facing a tough period in his career, reflected by a declining trend and a recent record that includes three consecutive losses. His performance suggests he is grappling with consistency, particularly on hard courts where he has yet to establish a solid win rate, impacting his confidence as he approaches the Wimbledon stage.
Match results: D. Merida Aguilar
13 Jun 2026ATP London
M. Damm
D. Merida Aguilar
20
63
62
L
7 Jun 2026Perugia
H. Rocha
D. Merida Aguilar
10
63
L
6 Jun 2026Perugia
D. Merida Aguilar
A. Pellegrino
21
63
57
63
W
5 Jun 2026Perugia
P. Llamas Ruiz
D. Merida Aguilar
02
16
26
W
3 Jun 2026Perugia
L. Broady
D. Merida Aguilar
02
46
26
W
1 Jun 2026Perugia
G. Cadenasso
D. Merida Aguilar
01
26
W
25 May 2026ATP French Open
D. Merida Aguilar
B. Shelton
03
36
36
46
L
13 May 2026Valencia
A. Kovacevic
D. Merida Aguilar
21
63
57
62
L
7 May 2026ATP Rome
N. Basilashvili
D. Merida Aguilar
21
64
26
63
L
5 May 2026ATP Rome
D. Merida Aguilar
T. Barrios Vera
21
63
36
W
Players Analysis
C. Ugo Carabelli has struggled in his recent matches, with only 3 wins in his last 10 outings, including losses against higher-ranked players. His performance at the ATP French Open and ATP Hamburg has shown inconsistency, particularly in terms of set wins. On the other hand, D. Merida Aguilar has had a mixed bag of results, with 4 wins in his last 10 matches, but he has shown resilience in Challenger events, indicating a potential for strong performances in lower-tier tournaments.
Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors
Carabelli's recent form shows a tendency to lose closely contested matches, often dropping sets after winning the first. His average games per match suggest he can push opponents but struggles to close out matches. Merida Aguilar, while also inconsistent, has a slightly better recent win rate and has performed well in Challenger events, which may give him an edge in confidence. Both players have not faced each other before, which adds an element of unpredictability to this matchup.
C. Ugo Carabelli — D. Merida Aguilar Prediction
Considering the recent forms and overall performance, D. Merida Aguilar is slightly favored to win this match. His ability to perform well in Challenger events and a better recent win rate suggest he can capitalize on Carabelli's inconsistencies. The match is expected to be competitive, with both players capable of winning sets.
Final score in sets: 3-1
Predicted winner of each set: 1st set: D. Merida Aguilar, 2nd set: C. Ugo Carabelli, 3rd set: D. Merida Aguilar, 4th set: D. Merida Aguilar
Expected aces: 10
Double faults: 5
Break points: 6
In terms of tactics, D. Merida Aguilar may focus on aggressive baseline play to exploit Carabelli's weaknesses, particularly in longer rallies. Carabelli will need to improve his serve reliability and capitalize on any break points he gets to stay competitive in this match.
3 Reasons Why D. Merida Aguilar Will Win
Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors D. Merida Aguilar 3:1 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors D. Merida Aguilar.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, D. Merida Aguilar has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than C. Ugo Carabelli, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
DateMatchWSADFBP
29.06.2026 14:00ATP Wimbledon
C. Ugo Carabelli
D. Merida Aguilar
13
01001011
108
54
65
Where to watch C. Ugo Carabelli vs D. Merida Aguilar
ATP Official Website - Visit the official ATP website for information on match schedules and broadcast details.
Wimbledon Official Website - Check the official Wimbledon website for live streaming options and match updates.
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