28.06.2026
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Prediction D. Shapovalov vs P. Carreno-Busta — 29.06.2026

D. Shapovalov flag
ATP - 37
D. Shapovalov - P. Carreno-Busta
ATP Wimbledon 1/64-finals
June 29, 2026 12:00
Days
00
Hours
00
Minutes
00
Seconds
00
P. Carreno-Busta flag
ATP - 91

Tennis Head-to-Head and Recent Matches

Total games 4
H2H W-L 1-0-3
Avg sets per match 2.25
Last 5 W-L 1-3
Last 3 W-L 1-2
Current streak L2
Sets balance 0
Avg sets (last 5) 2.25
Sets range 2-3
3-set matches 1 (25%)
2-0 / 2-1 split 1/0 • 2/1
25% 1 Wins
0% 0 Draws
75% 3 Wins
Last 4 matches
Date
Match
Score
Tournament
Surface
24 Feb 2026
P. Carreno-Busta - D. Shapovalov
2:0 (6-2, 6-4)
Dubai
2 Nov 2022
P. Carreno-Busta - D. Shapovalov
2:1 (2-6, 6-4)
Paris
9 Jan 2022
P. Carreno-Busta - D. Shapovalov
0:2 (4-6, 3-6)
ATP ATP Cup
28 Sep 2019
D. Shapovalov - P. Carreno-Busta
0:2 (3-6, 4-6)
Chengdu
D. Shapovalov

Player Overview

Denis Shapovalov, currently grappling with a career baseline win percentage close to 56% on hard courts, is on a declining trend as he approaches this match. His recent form indicates a downturn, with no wins in his last five outings. This period has seen him struggle against a mix of opponents, highlighting his difficulties maintaining consistency on the court.

Shapovalov's last match ended in a straight-sets loss against Alex De Minaur, marking his second consecutive defeat. His inability to capture a win since early May raises concerns heading into this encounter. Without a recent victory or sets won in his last matches, he faces a tall order against Pablo Carreno-Busta, who has shown more resilience in recent tournaments.

Match results: D. Shapovalov

17 Jun 2026 ATP London
A. De Minaur
D. Shapovalov
2 0
6 4
6 1
L
15 Jun 2026 ATP London
J. Pinnington Jones
D. Shapovalov
1 2
4 6
6 4
W
8 Jun 2026 ATP Hertogenbosch
M. Cilic
D. Shapovalov
2 0
6 4
7 5
L
26 May 2026 ATP French Open
J. Faria
D. Shapovalov
3 0
6 4
7 5
6 4
L
7 May 2026 ATP Rome
D. Shapovalov
M. Navone
0 2
4 6
2 6
L
25 Apr 2026 ATP Madrid
N. Budkov Kjaer
D. Shapovalov
2 0
6 2
6 1
L
17 Apr 2026 ATP Munich
D. Shapovalov
A. Molcan
0 2
4 6
4 6
L
16 Apr 2026 ATP Munich
D. Shapovalov
F. Marozsan
1 0
6 2
W
14 Apr 2026 ATP Munich
T. Griekspoor
D. Shapovalov
1 2
4 6
6 3
2 6
W
6 Apr 2026 ATP Monte Carlo
D. Shapovalov
A. Blockx
1 2
4 6
6 4
3 6
L
P. Carreno-Busta

Player Overview

Pablo Carreno-Busta, with a strong career baseline win percentage hovering around 60% on hard surfaces, enters this match in a stable condition despite recent ups and downs. His Elo rating reflects a solid standing, and he is known for his tactical play and solid return game. Although he has faced setbacks, such as a recent loss to R. Jodar, Carreno-Busta has also secured wins against competitive players like Thanasi Kokkinakis and J. Lehecka.

His journey through the French Open was marked by a mix of results, with two wins followed by a narrow defeat. As he prepares to face Shapovalov, the pressure will be on Carreno-Busta to capitalize on his opponent's current struggles. A strong performance could set the tone for his Wimbledon campaign, as he aims to leverage his experience against a player in turmoil.

Match results: P. Carreno-Busta

31 May 2026 ATP French Open
R. Jodar
P. Carreno-Busta
3 2
4 6
4 6
6 1
6 2
6 2
L
29 May 2026 ATP French Open
T. A. Tirante
P. Carreno-Busta
1 2
5 7
6 3
4 6
W
27 May 2026 ATP French Open
T. Kokkinakis
P. Carreno-Busta
1 2
5 7
6 4
W
25 May 2026 ATP French Open
P. Carreno-Busta
J. Lehecka
2 0
6 3
6 3
W
15 May 2026 Valencia
P. Carreno-Busta
J. Munar
0 1
L
14 May 2026 Valencia
S. Baez
P. Carreno-Busta
1 2
7 5
5 7
5 7
W
12 May 2026 Valencia
P. Carreno-Busta
F. Comesana
2 0
6 4
6 3
W
6 May 2026 ATP Rome
P. Carreno-Busta
A. Tabilo
0 2
2 6
1 6
L
5 May 2026 ATP Rome
P. Carreno-Busta
S. Wawrinka
1 0
W
4 May 2026 ATP Rome
P. Carreno-Busta
M. Damm
2 0
6 3
6 3
W

Players Analysis

Denis Shapovalov has struggled in recent matches, with only 2 wins in his last 10 outings. His performance has been inconsistent, particularly evident in his last match against Alex De Minaur where he lost 0-2. In contrast, Pablo Carreno-Busta has shown better form, winning 6 of his last 10 matches, including a recent victory over T. A. Tirante. Carreno-Busta's ability to perform under pressure has been notable, especially in high-stakes matches.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

In their head-to-head encounters, Carreno-Busta has a significant advantage, winning 3 out of 4 matches against Shapovalov. Their last meeting in February 2026 ended with Carreno-Busta winning 2-0, showcasing his dominance. On grass, Carreno-Busta's experience and tactical play may give him an edge, especially considering Shapovalov's recent struggles on this surface. The match's best-of-5 format could favor Carreno-Busta, who has demonstrated resilience in longer matches.

D. Shapovalov — P. Carreno-Busta Prediction

Given the recent form and head-to-head statistics, Pablo Carreno-Busta is favored to win this match. Shapovalov's inconsistency and Carreno-Busta's solid performance suggest a likely outcome of Carreno-Busta winning in straight sets. The predicted score is 3-0 in sets, with Carreno-Busta taking each set decisively.

  • Final score in sets: 3-0
  • Predicted winner of each set: Carreno-Busta, Carreno-Busta, Carreno-Busta
  • Expected aces: 10
  • Double faults: 3
  • Break points: 5

In terms of tactical expectations, Carreno-Busta is likely to exploit Shapovalov's weaknesses on serve, aiming to break early in each set. His consistent baseline play and ability to construct points will be crucial in maintaining pressure on Shapovalov, who may struggle to find rhythm against Carreno-Busta's steady game.

3 Reasons Why P. Carreno-Busta Will Win

  • Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors P. Carreno-Busta 3:0 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
  • Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors P. Carreno-Busta.
  • Pressure Points. In recent matches, P. Carreno-Busta has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than D. Shapovalov, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
Date Match W S A DF BP
29.06.2026 12:00 ATP Wimbledon
D. Shapovalov
P. Carreno-Busta
0 3
0 0 0 1 1 1
510
32
25