Denis Shapovalov, currently grappling with a career baseline win percentage close to 56% on hard courts, is on a declining trend as he approaches this match. His recent form indicates a downturn, with no wins in his last five outings. This period has seen him struggle against a mix of opponents, highlighting his difficulties maintaining consistency on the court.
Shapovalov's last match ended in a straight-sets loss against Alex De Minaur, marking his second consecutive defeat. His inability to capture a win since early May raises concerns heading into this encounter. Without a recent victory or sets won in his last matches, he faces a tall order against Pablo Carreno-Busta, who has shown more resilience in recent tournaments.
Match results: D. Shapovalov
17 Jun 2026ATP London
A. De Minaur
D. Shapovalov
20
64
61
L
15 Jun 2026ATP London
J. Pinnington Jones
D. Shapovalov
12
46
64
W
8 Jun 2026ATP Hertogenbosch
M. Cilic
D. Shapovalov
20
64
75
L
26 May 2026ATP French Open
J. Faria
D. Shapovalov
30
64
75
64
L
7 May 2026ATP Rome
D. Shapovalov
M. Navone
02
46
26
L
25 Apr 2026ATP Madrid
N. Budkov Kjaer
D. Shapovalov
20
62
61
L
17 Apr 2026ATP Munich
D. Shapovalov
A. Molcan
02
46
46
L
16 Apr 2026ATP Munich
D. Shapovalov
F. Marozsan
10
62
W
14 Apr 2026ATP Munich
T. Griekspoor
D. Shapovalov
12
46
63
26
W
6 Apr 2026ATP Monte Carlo
D. Shapovalov
A. Blockx
12
46
64
36
L
P. Carreno-Busta
Player Overview
Pablo Carreno-Busta, with a strong career baseline win percentage hovering around 60% on hard surfaces, enters this match in a stable condition despite recent ups and downs. His Elo rating reflects a solid standing, and he is known for his tactical play and solid return game. Although he has faced setbacks, such as a recent loss to R. Jodar, Carreno-Busta has also secured wins against competitive players like Thanasi Kokkinakis and J. Lehecka.
His journey through the French Open was marked by a mix of results, with two wins followed by a narrow defeat. As he prepares to face Shapovalov, the pressure will be on Carreno-Busta to capitalize on his opponent's current struggles. A strong performance could set the tone for his Wimbledon campaign, as he aims to leverage his experience against a player in turmoil.
Match results: P. Carreno-Busta
31 May 2026ATP French Open
R. Jodar
P. Carreno-Busta
32
46
46
61
62
62
L
29 May 2026ATP French Open
T. A. Tirante
P. Carreno-Busta
12
57
63
46
W
27 May 2026ATP French Open
T. Kokkinakis
P. Carreno-Busta
12
57
64
W
25 May 2026ATP French Open
P. Carreno-Busta
J. Lehecka
20
63
63
W
15 May 2026Valencia
P. Carreno-Busta
J. Munar
01
L
14 May 2026Valencia
S. Baez
P. Carreno-Busta
12
75
57
57
W
12 May 2026Valencia
P. Carreno-Busta
F. Comesana
20
64
63
W
6 May 2026ATP Rome
P. Carreno-Busta
A. Tabilo
02
26
16
L
5 May 2026ATP Rome
P. Carreno-Busta
S. Wawrinka
10
W
4 May 2026ATP Rome
P. Carreno-Busta
M. Damm
20
63
63
W
Players Analysis
Denis Shapovalov has struggled in recent matches, with only 2 wins in his last 10 outings. His performance has been inconsistent, particularly evident in his last match against Alex De Minaur where he lost 0-2. In contrast, Pablo Carreno-Busta has shown better form, winning 6 of his last 10 matches, including a recent victory over T. A. Tirante. Carreno-Busta's ability to perform under pressure has been notable, especially in high-stakes matches.
Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors
In their head-to-head encounters, Carreno-Busta has a significant advantage, winning 3 out of 4 matches against Shapovalov. Their last meeting in February 2026 ended with Carreno-Busta winning 2-0, showcasing his dominance. On grass, Carreno-Busta's experience and tactical play may give him an edge, especially considering Shapovalov's recent struggles on this surface. The match's best-of-5 format could favor Carreno-Busta, who has demonstrated resilience in longer matches.
D. Shapovalov — P. Carreno-Busta Prediction
Given the recent form and head-to-head statistics, Pablo Carreno-Busta is favored to win this match. Shapovalov's inconsistency and Carreno-Busta's solid performance suggest a likely outcome of Carreno-Busta winning in straight sets. The predicted score is 3-0 in sets, with Carreno-Busta taking each set decisively.
Final score in sets: 3-0
Predicted winner of each set: Carreno-Busta, Carreno-Busta, Carreno-Busta
Expected aces: 10
Double faults: 3
Break points: 5
In terms of tactical expectations, Carreno-Busta is likely to exploit Shapovalov's weaknesses on serve, aiming to break early in each set. His consistent baseline play and ability to construct points will be crucial in maintaining pressure on Shapovalov, who may struggle to find rhythm against Carreno-Busta's steady game.
3 Reasons Why P. Carreno-Busta Will Win
Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors P. Carreno-Busta 3:0 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors P. Carreno-Busta.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, P. Carreno-Busta has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than D. Shapovalov, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
DateMatchWSADFBP
29.06.2026 12:00ATP Wimbledon
D. Shapovalov
P. Carreno-Busta
03
000111
510
32
25
Where to watch D. Shapovalov vs P. Carreno-Busta
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