30.06.2026

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ATP Wimbledon

Prediction D. Merida Aguilar vs D. Medvedev — 01.07.2026

Daniel Carter

ATP - 86

D. Merida Aguilar - D. Medvedev

ATP Wimbledon 1/32-finals

July 1, 2026 • 12:00

Days

Hours

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Seconds

ATP - 13

D. Merida Aguilar

Player Overview

D. Merida Aguilar is still carving out his identity on the ATP tour, with a career baseline win rate hovering around 56% on hard courts. Currently, he is in a declining trajectory, struggling to find a rhythm as demonstrated by his recent results. His serve has not been a reliable weapon lately, which has compounded his difficulties in matches.

His recent outings have been rough, suffering five consecutive losses, including a disappointing defeat to C. Ugo Carabelli at Wimbledon. Aguilar's only recent victory came against A. Pellegrino, but that feels far removed from the consistency needed to challenge higher-ranked players. Facing Daniil Medvedev, he will need to significantly elevate his game to have any chance of success.

Match results: D. Merida Aguilar

29 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon

C. Ugo Carabelli

D. Merida Aguilar

2 1

6 4

6 3

2 6

13 Jun 2026 ATP London

M. Damm

D. Merida Aguilar

2 0

6 3

6 2

7 Jun 2026 Perugia

H. Rocha

D. Merida Aguilar

1 0

6 3

6 Jun 2026 Perugia

D. Merida Aguilar

A. Pellegrino

2 1

6 3

5 7

6 3

5 Jun 2026 Perugia

P. Llamas Ruiz

D. Merida Aguilar

0 2

1 6

2 6

3 Jun 2026 Perugia

L. Broady

D. Merida Aguilar

0 2

4 6

2 6

1 Jun 2026 Perugia

G. Cadenasso

D. Merida Aguilar

0 1

2 6

25 May 2026 ATP French Open

D. Merida Aguilar

B. Shelton

0 3

3 6

4 6

13 May 2026 Valencia

A. Kovacevic

D. Merida Aguilar

2 1

6 3

5 7

6 2

7 May 2026 ATP Rome

N. Basilashvili

D. Merida Aguilar

2 1

6 4

2 6

6 3

D. Medvedev

Player Overview

D. Medvedev, a formidable presence on the ATP tour, boasts a career baseline win percentage of approximately 62% on hard surfaces and is currently on a rising trend. His recent performances underscore his ability to dominate matches, particularly evident in his latest win against Marin Cilic at Wimbledon, where he swept the match 3-0.

Medvedev's recent form has been mixed, featuring a loss to Daniel Altmaier but also two solid victories in ATP Halle. The contrasting fortunes of his last five matches, with three wins, set him up as the clear favorite against Aguilar. If he can maintain his focus and capitalize on his opponent's struggles, Medvedev should secure a straightforward passage to the next round.

Match results: D. Medvedev

29 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon

M. Cilic

D. Medvedev

0 3

1 6

2 6

4 6

19 Jun 2026 ATP Halle

D. Altmaier

D. Medvedev

2 0

6 4

17 Jun 2026 ATP Halle

T. Atmane

D. Medvedev

0 2

4 6

16 Jun 2026 ATP Halle

T. M. Etcheverry

D. Medvedev

0 2

3 6

4 6

13 Jun 2026 ATP Hertogenbosch

K. Majchrzak

D. Medvedev

1 0

6 1

13 Jun 2026 ATP Hertogenbosch

D. Medvedev

M. Cilic

2 1

6 2

3 6

6 1

12 Jun 2026 ATP Hertogenbosch

D. Medvedev

T. Boogaard

2 1

6 3

4 6

26 May 2026 ATP French Open

A. Walton

D. Medvedev

3 2

6 2

1 6

6 1

1 6

6 4

16 May 2026 ATP Rome

J. Sinner

D. Medvedev

2 1

6 2

5 7

6 4

14 May 2026 ATP Rome

M. Landaluce

D. Medvedev

1 2

6 1

4 6

5 7

Players Analysis

D. Merida Aguilar has struggled recently, with only 2 wins in his last 10 matches, including losses in his last three outings. His performance has been inconsistent, particularly in high-stakes matches, as evidenced by his recent defeats in the ATP London and Challenger events. On the other hand, D. Medvedev has shown a stronger form, winning 6 out of his last 10 matches, including a recent victory at ATP Wimbledon. Medvedev's experience and success on grass courts give him a significant edge in this matchup.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

In terms of recent performance, D. Medvedev has a better overall game, averaging 1.6 games won per match compared to D. Merida Aguilar's 1.2. Medvedev's ability to secure break points and maintain a higher win rate on grass surfaces further supports his advantage. Additionally, Merida Aguilar's recent matches have shown a tendency to drop sets, which could be detrimental against a player of Medvedev's caliber.

D. Merida Aguilar — D. Medvedev Prediction

Considering the current form and head-to-head context, D. Medvedev is favored to win this match. His recent performances and historical success on grass courts suggest a likely victory over D. Merida Aguilar. The predicted outcome is a straight sets win for Medvedev, reflecting his superior form and experience.

Final score in sets: 3:0
Predicted winner of each set: 1st set: D. Medvedev, 2nd set: D. Medvedev, 3rd set: D. Medvedev
Expected aces: 10
Double faults: 2
Break points: 5

In terms of tactical expectations, D. Medvedev is likely to utilize his strong serve and baseline game to dominate the rallies. He will aim to exploit Merida Aguilar's weaknesses, particularly his inconsistent return game. Medvedev's ability to pressure on break points will be crucial in securing an early lead in each set, potentially leading to a quick match.

3 Reasons Why D. Medvedev Will Win

Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors D. Medvedev 3:0 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors D. Medvedev.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, D. Medvedev has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than D. Merida Aguilar, which can swing tight scorelines.

Match Prediction

Date Match W S A DF BP

01.07.2026 12:00 ATP Wimbledon

D. Merida Aguilar

D. Medvedev

0 3

0 0 0 1 1 1

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