14.07.2026

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ATP Umag

Prediction M. Dodig vs P. Carreno-Busta — 14.07.2026

Daniel Carter

ATP - 231

M. Dodig - P. Carreno-Busta

ATP Umag 1/16-finals

July 14, 2026 • 16:10

Days

Hours

Minutes

Seconds

ATP - 91

M. Dodig

Player Overview

Marin Dodig has struggled to find his footing on the ATP circuit lately, with a career baseline win percentage near 56% on hard courts. His performance over the last two years has been trending downward, indicating challenges in both consistency and execution. Currently, Dodig's Elo rating suggests he's operating in a lower tier, which reflects his recent results.

In his last five matches, Dodig has not secured a single win, dropping key encounters against players like Pablo Carreno-Busta and Hugo Dellien. This downward trajectory raises concerns heading into his next match, particularly as he faces Carreno-Busta once again, who has already bested him in their recent meeting at ATP Umag.

Match results: M. Dodig

14 Jul 2026 ATP Umag

M. Dodig

P. Carreno-Busta

0 1

4 6

12 Jul 2026 Trieste

M. Dodig

H. Dellien

1 2

7 5

4 6

2 6

11 Jul 2026 Trieste

M. Dodig

H. Squire

2 1

6 4

3 6

6 3

10 Jul 2026 Trieste

R. Brancaccio

M. Dodig

0 1

1 6

8 Jul 2026 Trieste

M. Ribecai

M. Dodig

1 2

6 4

5 7

4 6

6 Jul 2026 Trieste

S. Nagal

M. Dodig

0 2

2 6

4 6

24 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon

N. Budkov Kjaer

M. Dodig

1 0

6 2

22 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon

M. Dodig

F. Ferreira Silva

0 1

3 6

9 Jun 2026 Cattolica (Italy) - Qualification

C. Sanchez Jover

M. Dodig

2 0

6 4

3 Jun 2026 Heilbronn

M. Dodig

G. Den Ouden

0 2

3 6

0 6

P. Carreno-Busta

Player Overview

Pablo Carreno-Busta remains a formidable competitor, with a career baseline win percentage above 60% on hard courts. However, his recent form has fluctuated, as indicated by a mixed two-year performance trajectory. Carreno-Busta's Elo rating reflects a solid standing, but his consistency has been tested, particularly in high-stakes matches.

Match results: P. Carreno-Busta

14 Jul 2026 ATP Umag

M. Dodig

P. Carreno-Busta

0 1

4 6

2 Jul 2026 ATP Wimbledon

R. Jodar

P. Carreno-Busta

3 2

3 6

6 3

1 6

6 3

6 4

29 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon

D. Shapovalov

P. Carreno-Busta

0 1

3 6

31 May 2026 ATP French Open

R. Jodar

P. Carreno-Busta

3 2

4 6

6 1

6 2

29 May 2026 ATP French Open

T. A. Tirante

P. Carreno-Busta

1 2

5 7

6 3

4 6

27 May 2026 ATP French Open

T. Kokkinakis

P. Carreno-Busta

1 2

5 7

6 4

25 May 2026 ATP French Open

P. Carreno-Busta

J. Lehecka

2 0

6 3

15 May 2026 Valencia

P. Carreno-Busta

J. Munar

0 1

14 May 2026 Valencia

S. Baez

P. Carreno-Busta

1 2

7 5

5 7

12 May 2026 Valencia

P. Carreno-Busta

F. Comesana

2 0

6 4

6 3

Players Analysis

M. Dodig has shown a mixed performance in his recent matches, with a record of 4 wins and 6 losses in his last 10 matches. His last match was a loss against H. Dellien in the final of the Trieste Challenger. In contrast, P. Carreno-Busta has been in better form, winning 6 out of his last 10 matches, including a recent victory against R. Jodar in the first round of Wimbledon. This indicates a stronger current form for Carreno-Busta.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

In terms of overall performance, P. Carreno-Busta has a higher average of games won per match compared to M. Dodig. Carreno-Busta's recent matches have shown a tendency to win more consistently, especially in high-stakes tournaments like the ATP events. The head-to-head record is currently unavailable, but Carreno-Busta's recent form and higher win rate suggest he may have the upper hand in this matchup.

M. Dodig — P. Carreno-Busta Prediction

Considering the current form and performance metrics, P. Carreno-Busta is favored to win this match against M. Dodig. Dodig's recent struggles and Carreno-Busta's superior form lead to a predicted outcome of 2 sets to 0 in favor of Carreno-Busta.

Final score in sets: 2:0
Predicted winner of each set: Set 1 - P. Carreno-Busta, Set 2 - P. Carreno-Busta
Expected aces: 4
Double faults: 2
Break points: 3

P. Carreno-Busta is expected to dominate the match with his strong serve and consistent baseline play. His ability to convert break points will be crucial, especially against Dodig, who has struggled to maintain pressure in recent matches. The surface at ATP Umag is likely to favor Carreno-Busta's playing style, enhancing his chances of winning.

3 Reasons Why P. Carreno-Busta Will Win

Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors P. Carreno-Busta 2:0 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors P. Carreno-Busta.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, P. Carreno-Busta has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than M. Dodig, which can swing tight scorelines.

Match Prediction

Date Match W S A DF BP

14.07.2026 16:10 ATP Umag

M. Dodig

P. Carreno-Busta

0 2

0 0 1 1