In the brief span of 37 minutes during the match between England and Argentina, England managed only 12% possession after taking the lead, signaling a stark contrast to the anticipated dynamic of the World Cup final against Spain. Unlike England, Spain is unlikely to fall into a defensive mindset; instead, they hold a commanding average of 64% possession throughout the tournament, showcasing their preference for methodical play over chaos.
Spain has established a distinct playing style since Vicente del Bosque succeeded Luis Aragonés as manager in 2008, and this identity offers a glimmer of hope for England. Once viewed as perennial underachievers, Spain has transformed under Aragonés, culminating in three European Championships and a World Cup within the last twenty years, with the potential for another triumph this Sunday.
While their focus on ball control can lead to predictability, Luis de la Fuente has brought new life to the juego de posición approach. A recent contrast with a team that struggles to maintain possession highlights the critical value of ball retention, a skill that Spain has mastered.
De la Fuente’s background is pivotal; he is not merely a club coach but a federation figure who has been closely involved with many of his players since their youth. This tournament has seen struggles for several high-profile coaches from wealthier nations, including Thomas Tuchel and Carlo Ancelotti, making De la Fuente’s familiarity with his squad a notable advantage. Like De la Fuente, Argentina’s Lionel Scaloni ascended to the senior role after coaching the under-21 team, establishing a strong rapport with his players and understanding their mentality.
Joachim Löw similarly guided Germany to victory in the 2014 World Cup through his deep-rooted experience within the federation. England’s resurgence on the international stage—four semi-finals in five tournaments since 2018—can be attributed to the transformative efforts of Sir Gareth Southgate, who revamped the academy system and the England DNA project before stepping into the under-21 role.
The modern landscape of international football increasingly emphasizes systems, which raises questions about whether Lee Carsley, who has led England’s under-21s to two European Championship victories, should be considered for the senior position.
Under Scaloni, Argentina has consciously sought to revive a more traditional style of play, one that prioritizes short passing over physicality. This shift is embodied by their analyst Matías Manna, who highlights Leandro Paredes of Boca Juniors as a crucial player. “He wins the ball a lot from the front and knows how to defend behind him,” Manna noted.
“If a team is built around passing, it’s important to have a holder like Paredes who interacts well with the inside players and the No 10. He’s the Argentinian who best finds Messi between the lines. You can’t analyse the game individually. The game is in the relationships between players.”
Manna’s philosophy emphasizes integration, asserting that tactical and emotional connections among players matter more than rigid formations. Argentina’s greatest strength under Scaloni lies in their unity, driven by a collective goal to secure a second World Cup for Lionel Messi, thereby surpassing Diego Maradona’s legacy.
While Spain has moved away from the notion of la furia, Argentina has embraced it. The dynamic is not merely about remaining competitive until Messi can create a moment of brilliance; his ability to influence matches through sheer talent and determination is invaluable. Argentina’s late-game resurgence, often fueled by Messi, has been a hallmark of their knockout stage performances.
It is likely that Argentina will adopt a 4-5-1 formation in the final, with Messi playing as a loose center-forward and Julián Álvarez positioned on the left. The decision on whether to use Simeone as a disruptive force on the right or to deploy Rodrigo De Paul, who often supports Messi, presents a significant tactical choice for Argentina.
The crucial objective will be to disrupt Spain’s midfield and prevent them from establishing their rhythm. This may involve Alexis Mac Allister or Enzo Fernández taking on a man-to-man role against Rodri, who serves as Spain’s midfield anchor.
Previous matches against Cape Verde and Egypt have revealed Argentina’s susceptibility to fast-paced play. Curiously, England did not attempt to exploit this weakness, and it remains uncertain if Spain will. Their strength during the last Euros rested in their ability to blend possession with direct play from wide areas. However, injuries have limited their options in this tournament.
Nico Williams, a standout performer at the Euros, has seen his role reduced to substitute appearances, and Álex Baena has not provided the pace expected from a central creator filling in on the wing. Meanwhile, Lamine Yamal has gradually improved his fitness but has yet to reach peak form.
The final represents a classic showdown between a methodical team and one fueled by emotion. While passion can inspire, it also carries the risk of over-exuberance, potentially allowing a composed Spain to seize control. Should Spain take an early lead, it is easy to envision them frustrating Argentina by controlling possession and countering effectively.
Yet, Argentina demonstrates a greater self-awareness compared to Brazil in 2014, possessing the ability to channel their drive. As the match progresses without a goal, the probability of Argentina realizing Messi’s aspirations increases significantly.
