A. Pellegrino has battled through a challenging season, marked by a career baseline win percentage hovering around 56% on hard courts. His current trajectory shows signs of decline, particularly with a recent loss to Andrey Rublev, which underscores his struggle against higher-ranked opponents. Pellegrino's serve remains a work in progress, impacting his effectiveness in tight matches.
Recent performances reveal a mixed bag for Pellegrino, who secured a win against J. D. Silva but suffered defeats against Andrey Rublev and R. Brancaccio. With no wins in his last five matches, the pressure mounts as he prepares to face Gabriel Bueno, who has also struggled recently. Pellegrino must find a way to elevate his game to advance in this tournament.
Match results: A. Pellegrino
18 Jul 2026ATP Estoril
A. Pellegrino
J. D. Silva
20
63
62
W
16 Jul 2026ATP Bastad
A. Rublev
A. Pellegrino
21
76
67
63
L
14 Jul 2026ATP Bastad
N. Budkov Kjaer
A. Pellegrino
02
36
26
W
8 Jul 2026Trieste
A. Pellegrino
R. Brancaccio
12
63
46
36
L
7 Jul 2026Trieste
A. Pellegrino
M. Alcala Gurri
20
63
64
W
24 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
T. Boyer
A. Pellegrino
20
62
61
L
22 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
J. Clarke
A. Pellegrino
12
62
46
W
6 Jun 2026Perugia
D. Merida Aguilar
A. Pellegrino
21
63
57
63
L
5 Jun 2026Perugia
A. Pellegrino
P. Basile
20
62
63
W
4 Jun 2026Perugia
A. Pellegrino
R. Carballes Baena
21
46
75
63
W
G. Bueno
Player Overview
Gabriel Bueno's competitive profile reflects a career baseline win percentage near 50%, with a marked decline in performance over the past two years. His Elo rating indicates he’s currently positioned in the lower tier, struggling to find consistency on hard courts. Bueno's serve has been less effective than desired, which has contributed to his recent results.
A. Pellegrino has shown strong form recently, winning 8 out of his last 10 matches, including a solid victory in the semi-finals of the ATP Estoril against J. D. Silva. His performance has been characterized by effective serving and resilience. In contrast, G. Bueno has struggled with consistency, managing only 4 wins in his last 10 matches, with a notable loss in the semi-finals of ATP Bastad against I. Marcondes. This disparity in recent form suggests Pellegrino enters this final with a significant advantage.
Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors
In terms of statistics, A. Pellegrino has a higher average of games won per match compared to G. Bueno, with Pellegrino averaging 1.5 sets won per match in his last 10 outings. Bueno, on the other hand, has averaged only 0.7 sets won per match. Additionally, Pellegrino's recent matches indicate a strong serve, while Bueno has faced challenges with double faults and break points. The absence of head-to-head matches between these players means we rely heavily on their recent performances and overall form.
A. Pellegrino — G. Bueno Prediction
Given the current form and statistical analysis, A. Pellegrino is favored to win this match. His recent performances indicate he can capitalize on G. Bueno's weaknesses, particularly in serving and consistency. The predicted outcome is a straight-sets victory for Pellegrino.
Final score in sets: 2:0
Predicted winner of each set: Set 1 - A. Pellegrino, Set 2 - A. Pellegrino
Expected aces: 5
Double faults: 2
Break points: 4
In terms of tactics, Pellegrino is likely to focus on aggressive baseline play, utilizing his serve to set up points and applying pressure on Bueno's second serve. Bueno will need to improve his return game to compete effectively, but Pellegrino's current form suggests he will dominate the rallies.
3 Reasons Why A. Pellegrino Will Win
Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors A. Pellegrino 2:0 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors A. Pellegrino.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, A. Pellegrino has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than G. Bueno, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
DateMatchWSADFBP
19.07.2026 13:00ATP Estoril
A. Pellegrino
G. Bueno
20
1100
53
24
41
Where to watch A. Pellegrino vs G. Bueno
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