Elise Mertens has a career baseline win percentage hovering around 56% on hard surfaces, but her current trajectory appears to be declining, as she's struggled to find her rhythm recently. With a current two-year form that reflects inconsistency, she faces a challenge in maintaining competitive edge against top players on grass, a surface where her baseline game has often thrived.
Mertens arrives at this match after two strong victories at Wimbledon, defeating Laura Siegemund and M. Timofeeva, both in straight sets. However, her recent loss to Naomi Osaka in Bad Homburg raises concerns about her ability to sustain performance. With a recent trend of ups and downs, this match will be crucial for her to establish momentum in the tournament.
Match results: E. Mertens
2 Jul 2026WTA Wimbledon
E. Mertens
M. Timofeeva
21
26
63
60
W
30 Jun 2026WTA Wimbledon
E. Mertens
L. Siegemund
20
62
64
W
23 Jun 2026WTA Bad Homburg
N. Osaka
E. Mertens
20
63
63
L
22 Jun 2026WTA Bad Homburg
A. Eala
E. Mertens
02
36
36
W
17 Jun 2026WTA Berlin
E. Mertens
N. Bartunkova
02
16
46
L
15 Jun 2026WTA Berlin
E. Mertens
L. Samsonova
21
16
63
60
W
11 Jun 2026WTA Hertogenbosch
G. Ruse
E. Mertens
20
63
63
L
8 Jun 2026WTA Hertogenbosch
B. Andreescu
E. Mertens
02
16
26
W
28 May 2026WTA French Open
M. Chwalinska
E. Mertens
20
64
60
L
25 May 2026WTA French Open
T. Maria
E. Mertens
02
57
06
W
E. Rybakina
Player Overview
Elena Rybakina, with an Elo rating that places her among the elite, has demonstrated her prowess on grass courts, boasting a career baseline win percentage of nearly 60% in this setting. Her current form over the past two years indicates stability, and she has been trending upward recently, showcasing a combination of powerful serving and aggressive baseline play.
Rybakina heads into this match with a solid grip on her game, having secured wins against C. McNally and L. Boisson at Wimbledon. However, her recent defeat to A. Eala in Berlin highlights potential vulnerabilities that Mertens could exploit. This clash presents Rybakina an opportunity to assert her dominance in the tournament as she aims to build on her recent success.
Match results: E. Rybakina
2 Jul 2026WTA Wimbledon
C. McNally
E. Rybakina
02
16
26
W
30 Jun 2026WTA Wimbledon
L. Boisson
E. Rybakina
12
46
61
36
W
18 Jun 2026WTA Berlin
A. Eala
E. Rybakina
20
75
64
L
12 Jun 2026WTA London
E. Rybakina
K. Boulter
12
57
62
46
L
12 Jun 2026WTA London
E. Rybakina
T. Maria
20
75
60
W
27 May 2026WTA French Open
Y. Starodubtseva
E. Rybakina
21
36
61
L
25 May 2026WTA French Open
V. Erjavec
E. Rybakina
02
26
26
W
13 May 2026WTA Rome
E. Svitolina
E. Rybakina
21
26
64
64
L
11 May 2026WTA Rome
Ka. Pliskova
E. Rybakina
02
06
26
W
10 May 2026WTA Rome
A. Eala
E. Rybakina
02
46
36
W
Players Analysis
E. Mertens has struggled recently, winning only 2 of her last 10 matches, with a notable loss streak against E. Rybakina. In contrast, E. Rybakina has shown stronger form, winning 6 of her last 10 matches, including a recent victory against C. McNally. Their head-to-head record heavily favors Rybakina, who has won all 7 encounters, often in straight sets.
Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors
In their last matches, E. Mertens has averaged 1.2 sets won per match, while E. Rybakina has averaged 1.5 sets won. Mertens has a higher games against average, indicating vulnerabilities in her service games. Rybakina's recent performances have included multiple straight-set victories, showcasing her ability to dominate matches. The surface at Wimbledon typically favors Rybakina's powerful serve and aggressive playstyle.
E. Mertens — E. Rybakina Prediction
Given the current form and historical performance, E. Rybakina is favored to win this match. The prediction suggests a straight-set victory for Rybakina, likely reflecting her dominance in previous encounters.
Final score in sets: 2:0
Predicted winner of each set: Set 1 - E. Rybakina, Set 2 - E. Rybakina
Expected aces: 5
Double faults: 2
Break points: 4
Rybakina's strong serve will likely lead to several aces, while Mertens may struggle to break her serve. The tactical approach for Rybakina will be to maintain aggressive baseline play and capitalize on Mertens' weaknesses, particularly during crucial points.
3 Reasons Why E. Rybakina Will Win
Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors E. Rybakina 2:0 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors E. Rybakina.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, E. Rybakina has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than E. Mertens, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
DateMatchWSADFBP
03.07.2026 12:00Wimbledon
E. Mertens
E. Rybakina
02
0011
35
21
24
Where to watch E. Mertens vs E. Rybakina
Wimbledon Official Website - Official site for Wimbledon with information on match schedules and broadcast details.
ESPN Tennis Coverage - ESPN's official tennis page providing coverage and broadcast information for major tournaments including Wimbledon.
BBC Sport - Wimbledon - BBC Sport's official page for Wimbledon, featuring live updates and broadcast information.
Tennis Channel - Official Tennis Channel website with details on live broadcasts and match schedules.
YouTube - Wimbledon Channel - Official Wimbledon YouTube channel featuring highlights and live coverage of matches.
