Match Result Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues — 04.07.2026

Teams Form Analysis

The Richmond Tigers have struggled recently, losing their last three matches, including a narrow defeat to the Carlton Blues in their most recent encounter. Their performance has been inconsistent, averaging only 72 points per game in their last ten outings. In contrast, the Carlton Blues have shown better form, winning four of their last five games, including a strong performance against the West Coast Eagles, where they scored 117 points.

Richmond's scoring has been particularly concerning, as they have averaged just 65.6 points per game over their last five matches, while Carlton has averaged 87.8 points in the same period. This trend suggests that the Blues are in a better position heading into this matchup.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

In terms of statistics, Richmond's average disposals per game stand at 335.7, while Carlton leads with an average of 382.3. The Blues also have a higher average of clearances (34.8) compared to Richmond's 32.0. Additionally, Carlton has demonstrated a stronger scoring ability, averaging 11.7 goals per game, compared to Richmond's 9.4 goals. The venue, the Melbourne Cricket Ground, typically favors the home team, but Richmond's current form may negate this advantage.

Head-to-head, Carlton has won five of the last nine encounters, including their last two meetings, indicating a psychological edge. With Richmond's recent struggles and Carlton's upward trajectory, the Blues appear to be in a favorable position.

Richmond Tigers — Carlton Blues Prediction

• Exact Score: 72 – 74
• Q1: 18 – 20
• Q2: 18 – 22
• Q3: 18 – 16
• Q4: 18 – 16
• Total points: 146
• Winning margin: 2
• Disposals: 318 – 372
• Kicks: 175 – 222
• Handballs: 143 – 150
• Total Clearances: 31 – 43
• Marks: 68 – 101
• Tackles: 61 – 57
• Hitouts: 38 – 39
• Goal Assists: 4 – 8
• Free Kicks: 19 – 19

Richmond will need to improve their scoring efficiency and tackle pressure to compete effectively. Carlton's ability to control the midfield and create scoring opportunities will be crucial in determining the match outcome.

3 Reasons Why Carlton Blues Will Win

• Recent Form: Carlton has won four of their last five matches, showcasing a strong offensive capability, while Richmond has lost their last three.
• Head-to-Head Advantage: Carlton has won five of the last nine encounters, including the last two, indicating a psychological edge.
• Statistical Superiority: Carlton leads in key metrics such as disposals, clearances, and scoring averages, suggesting they are better equipped to secure a win.

Match Prediction

Date Match W Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Σ ±

04.07.2026 09:35 AFL Premiership

Richmond Tigers

Carlton Blues

72 74

18 20

18 22

18 16

18 16

146 —

-2 +2

AFL Stats Forecast

Metric

Disposals 318 372

Kicks 175 222

Handballs 143 150

Total Clearances 31 43

Marks 68 101

Tackles 61 57

Hitouts 38 39

Goal Assists 4 8

Free Kicks 19 19