Match Result Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons — 04.07.2026

Teams Form Analysis

The Hawthorn Hawks have shown a mixed form in their last ten matches, with a record of 5 wins and 5 losses. Their recent performance includes a notable victory against the Greater Western Sydney Giants, but they suffered a heavy defeat against the Melbourne Demons in their last encounter. On the other hand, the Melbourne Demons have been in strong form, winning 8 of their last 10 matches, including a convincing win over Hawthorn in their previous meeting.

In terms of scoring, Hawthorn averages 97.8 points per game while conceding 89.6, indicating a slightly positive scoring differential. Conversely, Melbourne's scoring average stands at 87.0 points for and 82.6 against, showcasing their ability to outscore opponents consistently.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

When analyzing the statistical metrics, the Hawthorn Hawks have averaged 384.8 disposals per game, with a breakdown of 224.7 kicks and 160.1 handballs. Their clearances average is 37.4, while they secure 99.8 marks per game. In contrast, the Melbourne Demons average 353.3 disposals, with 209.1 kicks and 144.1 handballs, alongside a similar clearance average of 37.4. The Demons have a slight edge in marks with an average of 86.0.

Head-to-head, Melbourne has dominated the recent matchups, winning 7 out of the last 10 encounters against Hawthorn, which includes their last two meetings. The home advantage at UTAS Stadium may provide some benefit to Hawthorn, but given the current form and historical performance, Melbourne appears to be the stronger side.

Hawthorn Hawks — Melbourne Demons Prediction

• Exact Score: 90 – 125
• Q1: 22 – 30
• Q2: 22 – 35
• Q3: 23 – 30
• Q4: 23 – 30
• Total points: 215
• Winning margin: 35
• Disposals: 345 – 349
• Kicks: 216 – 207
• Handballs: 129 – 142
• Total Clearances: 31 – 46
• Marks: 111 – 89
• Tackles: 44 – 64
• Hitouts: 42 – 36
• Goal Assists: 11 – 15
• Free Kicks: 20 – 23

In terms of tactics, Melbourne is expected to leverage their superior clearance ability to control the midfield, while Hawthorn will need to focus on their defensive structures to limit Melbourne's scoring opportunities. The Demons' ability to transition quickly from defense to attack could prove decisive in this matchup.

3 Reasons Why Melbourne Demons Will Win

• Recent Head-to-Head Dominance: Melbourne has won 7 of the last 10 encounters against Hawthorn, indicating a psychological edge.
• Current Form: The Demons are in excellent form, winning 8 of their last 10 matches, while Hawthorn has been inconsistent.
• Statistical Superiority: Melbourne averages more disposals and has a better clearance rate, which is crucial for controlling the game.

Match Prediction

Date Match W Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Σ ±

04.07.2026 03:15 AFL Premiership

Hawthorn Hawks

Melbourne Demons

90 125

22 30

22 35

23 30

23 30

215 —

-35 +35

AFL Stats Forecast

Metric

Disposals 345 349

Kicks 216 207

Handballs 129 142

Total Clearances 31 46

Marks 111 89

Tackles 44 64

Hitouts 42 36

Goal Assists 11 15

Free Kicks 20 23