Andrey Rublev has struggled recently, recording a career baseline win percentage near 56% on hard courts but now finds himself in a downward trend after a series of defeats. His current trajectory shows little sign of improvement, with a two-year performance level indicating he is operating below his usual standards. This decline raises questions about his capacity to reclaim his form on clay, where he has typically been more competitive.
Rublev's last five matches have yielded no wins, with losses against players like Roman Safiullin and Hubert Hurkacz, both of whom have exploited his vulnerabilities. The absence of recent competitive success may weigh heavily on his confidence heading into this fixture against Andrea Pellegrino, who represents a chance for Rublev to reset his season amidst a challenging spell.
Match results: A. Rublev
29 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
A. Rublev
R. Safiullin
12
46
63
36
L
24 Jun 2026Exhibition Boodles Challenge
A. Rublev
T. Kokkinakis
12
67
64
410
L
23 Jun 2026Exhibition Boodles Challenge
A. Rublev
A. Shevchenko
21
67
64
103
W
16 Jun 2026ATP Halle
A. Rublev
H. Hurkacz
02
36
26
L
31 May 2026ATP French Open
J. Mensik
A. Rublev
32
63
46
26
63
L
29 May 2026ATP French Open
N. Borges
A. Rublev
01
57
W
27 May 2026ATP French Open
C. Ugo Carabelli
A. Rublev
12
16
61
36
W
25 May 2026ATP French Open
I. Buse
A. Rublev
03
36
36
57
W
14 May 2026ATP Rome
J. Sinner
A. Rublev
20
62
64
L
12 May 2026ATP Rome
A. Rublev
N. Basilashvili
21
36
62
W
A. Pellegrino
Player Overview
Andrea Pellegrino enters this match with a recent victory over N. Budkov Kjaer, showcasing a shift in form that contrasts with his overall career performance, which remains below the elite tier. His recent matches have shown signs of promise, particularly with a win against M. Alcala Gurri, highlighting his potential to challenge in this tournament despite a less-than-stellar historical profile.
In his last five matches, Pellegrino has split his results, including a win at Trieste and losses at Wimbledon. This mixed bag keeps him in a position where he can either build on his recent success or falter under pressure. Facing Rublev, who is currently struggling, Pellegrino has an opportunity to capitalize on his opponent's vulnerabilities and advance further in Bastad.
Match results: A. Pellegrino
14 Jul 2026ATP Bastad
N. Budkov Kjaer
A. Pellegrino
02
36
26
W
8 Jul 2026Trieste
A. Pellegrino
R. Brancaccio
12
63
46
36
L
7 Jul 2026Trieste
A. Pellegrino
M. Alcala Gurri
20
63
64
W
24 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
T. Boyer
A. Pellegrino
20
62
61
L
22 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
J. Clarke
A. Pellegrino
12
62
46
W
6 Jun 2026Perugia
D. Merida Aguilar
A. Pellegrino
21
63
57
63
L
5 Jun 2026Perugia
A. Pellegrino
P. Basile
20
62
63
W
4 Jun 2026Perugia
A. Pellegrino
R. Carballes Baena
21
46
75
63
W
2 Jun 2026Perugia
A. Pellegrino
M. Kasnikowski
21
46
61
W
25 May 2026ATP French Open
F. Cobolli
A. Pellegrino
20
64
63
L
Players Analysis
A. Rublev has had a challenging run recently, with only 3 wins in his last 10 matches, including losses to players like R. Safiullin and H. Hurkacz. His performance has been inconsistent, particularly in high-stakes matches. On the other hand, A. Pellegrino has shown a better form with 6 wins in his last 10 matches, including a recent victory against N. Budkov Kjaer. Pellegrino's recent success in the Challenger circuit indicates a positive trajectory heading into this match.
Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors
In terms of overall performance, A. Rublev has scored 14 goals for and against in his last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals per match. A. Pellegrino, however, has a slightly better record with 14 goals for and only 11 against, averaging 1.4 goals for and 1.1 against per match. This suggests that Pellegrino has been more defensively sound while also being effective in attack. The absence of head-to-head matches between the two players makes it difficult to gauge their direct competition, but based on recent form, Pellegrino appears to have the upper hand.
A. Rublev — A. Pellegrino Prediction
Given the recent form and overall performance metrics, A. Pellegrino is favored to win this match against A. Rublev. The prediction is that Pellegrino will take the match in straight sets, capitalizing on Rublev's recent struggles.
Final score in sets: 2:0
Predicted winner of each set: Set 1 - A. Pellegrino, Set 2 - A. Pellegrino
Expected aces: 5
Double faults: 2
Break points: 3
Pellegrino's ability to maintain pressure on Rublev's serve will be crucial. If he can capitalize on break points early in the match, it may set the tone for a dominant performance. Additionally, Rublev's recent inconsistency on serve could lead to opportunities for Pellegrino to break serve and secure a quick victory.
3 Reasons Why A. Pellegrino Will Win
Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors A. Pellegrino 2:0 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors A. Pellegrino.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, A. Pellegrino has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than A. Rublev, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
DateMatchWSADFBP
15.07.2026 10:00ATP Bastad
A. Rublev
A. Pellegrino
02
0011
58
23
25
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