Varvara Lepchenko has a career win percentage of 56% and a current trajectory of 50.5% over the last two years, indicating a player who has seen better days. Her recent form is troubling, with a declining trend reflected in her last five matches, where she won only 40% of her matches. On grass, her Elo rating stands at 1476, suggesting she is not at her best on this surface, and her serve performance has faltered with a first serve win rate of just over 61%.
In her recent outings, Lepchenko has not secured a victory since early June, losing to opponents like Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva and T. Colin Grant. With a recent record of 1 win and 4 losses in her last five matches, the signs are not promising for her upcoming clash against Anastasia Gasanova. Lepchenko will need to significantly improve her performance to turn the tide at this prestigious tournament.
Anastasia Gasanova boasts a career win percentage of 62.5% and a solid current form of 64.6% over the last two years, which paints her as a competitive player. However, her recent form is also on a downward trajectory, with only 40% wins in her last five matches. Gasanova's Elo rating of 1495 on grass suggests she is still finding her footing on this surface, but her ability to win points on first serves at 58.3% indicates potential that remains untapped.
In her last five matches, Gasanova has also struggled, with recent losses to players like Greet Minnen and M. Matoula. She has only one victory in her last five outings, which adds to the pressure as she prepares to face Lepchenko. With both players in a phase of decline, this match could hinge on who can find their footing first, making it a critical encounter for both.
Match results: Anastasia Gasanova
28 May 2026W75 Kursumlijska Banja
M. Matoula
Anastasia Gasanova
21
16
63
64
L
26 May 2026W75 Kursumlijska Banja
M. Ristic
Anastasia Gasanova
12
46
61
26
W
18 May 2026WTA French Open
Greet Minnen
Anastasia Gasanova
20
63
75
L
6 May 2026Istanbul (Turkey) - Qualification
Anastasia Gasanova
P. Kudermetova
12
63
57
57
L
5 May 2026Istanbul (Turkey) - Qualification
Anastasia Gasanova
Guo
10
62
W
30 Apr 2026W100 Wiesbaden
Julia Grabher
Anastasia Gasanova
21
63
16
62
L
28 Apr 2026W100 Wiesbaden
Anastasia Gasanova
M. Bulgaru
20
62
62
W
21 Apr 2026W75 Chiasso
Tereza Martincova
Anastasia Gasanova
10
63
L
1 Apr 2026W100 Luan (China)
Anastasia Gasanova
Harriet Dart
12
63
36
L
26 Mar 2026W50 Maanshan (China), Hard
Anastasia Gasanova
A. Ibragimova
12
16
63
46
L
Players Analysis
Varvara Lepchenko has been struggling with form recently, winning only 50% of her last 10 matches. Her recent performances have shown inconsistency, particularly on clay surfaces, where she has a win percentage of 50.5% over the last two years. In contrast, Anastasia Gasanova has a slightly better recent record, winning 64.6% of her matches in the same timeframe. Gasanova's overall career win percentage stands at 62.5%, indicating a stronger performance historically.
Both players have faced tough opponents recently, but Gasanova's recent victories against lower-ranked players suggest she may have a slight edge in confidence going into this match. Lepchenko's serve statistics indicate a higher double fault rate, which could be a critical factor in a close match.
Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors
In terms of serve metrics, Varvara Lepchenko has recorded 3.8% aces and 3.3% double faults in her recent matches, while Anastasia Gasanova has lower ace percentages at 0.8% but a significantly higher double fault percentage at 8.8%. This discrepancy in serve reliability could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the match. Additionally, Lepchenko's recent form trend is declining, while Gasanova's win percentage over the last 10 matches is also at 40%, indicating both players are experiencing challenges but Gasanova has shown slightly better resilience.
Given the lack of head-to-head matches between the two players, their recent form and serve statistics will be pivotal in predicting the match outcome. The match will be played on grass, which may favor Gasanova slightly due to her better overall performance on this surface.
Varvara Lepchenko — Anastasia Gasanova Prediction
This match is expected to be closely contested, with both players showing similar recent form. However, Gasanova's slightly better performance metrics and recent match outcomes suggest she may edge out Lepchenko in this encounter.
Final score in sets: 2:1
Predicted winner of each set: Set 1 - Anastasia Gasanova, Set 2 - Varvara Lepchenko, Set 3 - Anastasia Gasanova
Expected aces: 3
Double faults: 5
Break points: 4
In terms of tactical expectations, Gasanova will likely focus on exploiting Lepchenko's serve weaknesses, aiming to capitalize on any double faults. Conversely, Lepchenko needs to maintain a high first-serve percentage to minimize break opportunities for Gasanova. The match could hinge on who manages to control the rallies and dictate play from the baseline.
3 Reasons Why Anastasia Gasanova Will Win
Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors Anastasia Gasanova 2:1 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors Anastasia Gasanova.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, Anastasia Gasanova has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than Varvara Lepchenko, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
DateMatchWSADFBP
23.06.2026 13:30Wimbledon
Varvara Lepchenko
Anastasia Gasanova
12
010101
32
54
45
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