14.07.2026

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ATP Umag

Prediction P. Carreno-Busta vs C. Ugo Carabelli — 15.07.2026

Daniel Carter

ATP - 91

P. Carreno-Busta - C. Ugo Carabelli

Umag

July 15, 2026 • 10:00

Days

Hours

Minutes

Seconds

ATP - 61

Tennis Head-to-Head and Recent Matches

Total games 1

H2H W-L 0-0-1

Avg sets per match 3.00

Last 5 W-L 0-1

Last 3 W-L 0-1

Current streak L1

Sets balance 0

Avg sets (last 5) 3.00

Sets range 3-3

3-set matches 1 (99%)

2-0 / 2-1 split 0/0 • 0/1

0% 0 Wins

0% 0 Draws

100% 1 Wins

Last 1 match

Date

Match

Score

Tournament

Surface

7 May 2025

C. Ugo Carabelli - P. Carreno-Busta

2:1 (6-2, 1-6, 6-3)

Rome

—

P. Carreno-Busta

Player Overview

Pablo Carreno-Busta, with a career baseline win percentage hovering just below 56% on hard courts, has struggled recently, trending downward. His current form over the last two years suggests a player still capable of challenging top opponents, yet the recent results indicate a player in search of consistency.

His last five matches include two wins but also three losses, most notably at Wimbledon and the French Open, where he faced tough competition. With a clean slate at the Umag tournament, Carreno-Busta must leverage his experience to turn his fortunes around against a less established opponent.

Match results: P. Carreno-Busta

14 Jul 2026 ATP Umag

M. Dodig

P. Carreno-Busta

0 2

4 6

2 6

2 Jul 2026 ATP Wimbledon

R. Jodar

P. Carreno-Busta

3 2

3 6

6 3

1 6

6 3

6 4

29 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon

D. Shapovalov

P. Carreno-Busta

0 1

3 6

31 May 2026 ATP French Open

R. Jodar

P. Carreno-Busta

3 2

4 6

6 1

6 2

29 May 2026 ATP French Open

T. A. Tirante

P. Carreno-Busta

1 2

5 7

6 3

4 6

27 May 2026 ATP French Open

T. Kokkinakis

P. Carreno-Busta

1 2

5 7

6 4

25 May 2026 ATP French Open

P. Carreno-Busta

J. Lehecka

2 0

6 3

15 May 2026 Valencia

P. Carreno-Busta

J. Munar

0 1

14 May 2026 Valencia

S. Baez

P. Carreno-Busta

1 2

7 5

5 7

12 May 2026 Valencia

P. Carreno-Busta

F. Comesana

2 0

6 4

6 3

C. Ugo Carabelli

Player Overview

C. Ugo Carabelli enters this match with an Elo rating that reflects a promising trajectory, especially considering his recent performances. Though he has a career baseline win percentage that suggests room for improvement, his current form over the past two years indicates a player on the rise, particularly on clay surfaces.

Carabelli has secured two consecutive victories leading into Umag, including a notable win over D. Merida Aguilar at Wimbledon. However, a recent loss to M. Bellucci in an exhibition raises questions about his consistency. As he faces Carreno-Busta, maintaining focus will be crucial to capitalize on his current momentum.

Match results: C. Ugo Carabelli

14 Jul 2026 ATP Umag

M. Topo

C. Ugo Carabelli

0 1

3 6

29 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon

C. Ugo Carabelli

D. Merida Aguilar

2 1

6 4

6 3

2 6

25 Jun 2026 Exhibition Boodles Challenge

C. Ugo Carabelli

M. Bellucci

1 2

6 1

3 6

11 13

22 Jun 2026 ATP Eastbourne

J. Pinnington Jones

C. Ugo Carabelli

0 0

27 May 2026 ATP French Open

C. Ugo Carabelli

A. Rublev

1 2

1 6

6 1

3 6

25 May 2026 ATP French Open

E. Nava

C. Ugo Carabelli

0 2

3 6

21 May 2026 ATP Hamburg

A. Kovacevic

C. Ugo Carabelli

2 0

6 4

6 2

20 May 2026 ATP Hamburg

C. Ugo Carabelli

F. Tiafoe

2 0

18 May 2026 ATP Hamburg

K. Majchrzak

C. Ugo Carabelli

1 2

6 1

2 6

3 6

15 May 2026 Valencia

C. Ugo Carabelli

M. Kecmanovic

0 2

1 6

Players Analysis

Pablo Carreno-Busta has shown a mixed form in his recent matches, winning 4 out of his last 10 matches. His recent performances include a win against M. Dodig and a loss to R. Jodar. Carreno-Busta's ability to perform under pressure is notable, especially in high-stakes matches. On the other hand, Carlos Ugo Carabelli has also had a challenging run, with 5 wins in his last 10 matches, including a recent victory against M. Topo. Both players have demonstrated resilience, but Carreno-Busta's experience may give him an edge.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

In their head-to-head encounters, Carlos Ugo Carabelli has a 100% win rate against Pablo Carreno-Busta, having won their only match in three sets (2:1) at the Rome tournament in May 2025. This historical context may influence Carreno-Busta's confidence going into the match. Additionally, Carreno-Busta's recent form shows he has been more consistent in winning sets, while Carabelli has struggled against higher-ranked opponents. The surface at Umag is likely to favor Carreno-Busta, who has a stronger overall performance on clay compared to Carabelli.

Pablo Carreno-Busta — Carlos Ugo Carabelli Prediction

Considering the recent form, head-to-head results, and surface advantage, Pablo Carreno-Busta is predicted to win this match. The forecast suggests a competitive match, but Carreno-Busta's experience and tactical play should allow him to secure the victory.

Final score in sets: 2:1
Predicted winner of each set: Set 1: Pablo Carreno-Busta, Set 2: Carlos Ugo Carabelli, Set 3: Pablo Carreno-Busta
Expected aces: 5
Double faults: 2
Break points: 4

In terms of tactical expectations, Carreno-Busta is likely to focus on his baseline consistency and exploiting Carabelli's weaker serve. He may look to engage in longer rallies to wear down Carabelli, who has shown vulnerability in extended exchanges. Carabelli, on the other hand, will need to capitalize on any opportunities to break serve early to gain momentum.

3 Reasons Why P. Carreno-Busta Will Win

Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors P. Carreno-Busta 2:1 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors P. Carreno-Busta.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, P. Carreno-Busta has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than C. Ugo Carabelli, which can swing tight scorelines.

Match Prediction

Date Match W S A DF BP

15.07.2026 10:00 Umag

P. Carreno-Busta

C. Ugo Carabelli

2 1

1 0 1 0 1 0