N. Budkov Kjaer has faced significant challenges recently, reflected in a career baseline win percentage hovering around 45%. On hard courts, his performance has been even less impressive, with a troubling trajectory over the last two years, indicating a declining form. His Elo rating places him in the lower tier of competitive players, suggesting that he may struggle against higher-ranked opponents, especially given his serve and return identity, which has not proven effective on this surface.
In his last five matches, Budkov Kjaer has managed only two victories, both at Wimbledon, but suffered defeats to players like O. Virtanen and M. McDonald. The recent loss to Virtanen was particularly telling, as he dropped the match 1-3, raising concerns about his ability to handle pressure. As he heads into this fixture against A. Pellegrino, the lack of recent success could weigh heavily on his performance, setting a challenging stage for his next match.
Match results: N. Budkov Kjaer
25 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
N. Budkov Kjaer
O. Virtanen
13
64
46
46
57
L
24 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
N. Budkov Kjaer
M. Dodig
10
62
W
22 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
N. Budkov Kjaer
J. Reis Da Silva
20
64
61
W
14 Jun 2026Nottingham
N. Budkov Kjaer
M. McDonald
12
63
36
26
L
8 Jun 2026Ilkley
A. Holmgren
N. Budkov Kjaer
10
60
L
2 Jun 2026Birmingham
M. McDonald
N. Budkov Kjaer
10
63
L
20 May 2026ATP French Open
N. Budkov Kjaer
T. Gentzsch
01
26
L
19 May 2026ATP French Open
N. Budkov Kjaer
G. A. Bailly
21
26
64
62
W
13 May 2026Valencia
N. Budkov Kjaer
M. Kecmanovic
02
46
46
L
12 May 2026Valencia
N. Budkov Kjaer
J. Paul
20
61
64
W
A. Pellegrino
Player Overview
A. Pellegrino's competitive landscape has been equally rocky, with a career baseline win percentage around 48%. His performance on hard courts has been patchy, and his current two-year form indicates stability, but not necessarily improvement, as he has fluctuated between wins and losses. His Elo rating suggests he is capable but needs to find consistency to elevate his game against tougher adversaries.
Pellegrino's recent match history shows a mixed bag, with a notable win against M. Alcala Gurri but a disappointing loss to R. Brancaccio, where he lost 1-2. This inconsistency in performance raises questions as he prepares to face Budkov Kjaer, who is also struggling. Pellegrino must capitalize on the opportunity to build momentum, or risk falling further into a pattern of underperformance.
Match results: A. Pellegrino
8 Jul 2026Trieste
A. Pellegrino
R. Brancaccio
12
63
46
36
L
7 Jul 2026Trieste
A. Pellegrino
M. Alcala Gurri
20
63
64
W
24 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
T. Boyer
A. Pellegrino
20
62
61
L
22 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
J. Clarke
A. Pellegrino
12
62
46
W
6 Jun 2026Perugia
D. Merida Aguilar
A. Pellegrino
21
63
57
63
L
5 Jun 2026Perugia
A. Pellegrino
P. Basile
20
62
63
W
4 Jun 2026Perugia
A. Pellegrino
R. Carballes Baena
21
46
75
63
W
2 Jun 2026Perugia
A. Pellegrino
M. Kasnikowski
21
46
61
W
25 May 2026ATP French Open
F. Cobolli
A. Pellegrino
20
64
63
L
21 May 2026ATP French Open
M. Cecchinato
A. Pellegrino
01
26
W
Players Analysis
N. Budkov Kjaer has shown a mixed form in his recent matches, with a record of 4 wins and 6 losses in his last 10 matches. His most recent performance was a loss in the final at the ATP Wimbledon, indicating he has faced tough competition. On the other hand, A. Pellegrino has been slightly more successful, with 6 wins and 4 losses in his last 10 matches, including a recent victory in the 1/16-finals of the Challenger Men Singles in Trieste.
Both players have faced strong opponents recently, but Pellegrino's recent form suggests he may have a slight edge going into this match. However, Budkov Kjaer has experience from competing in higher-tier tournaments, which could play a crucial role in this matchup.
Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors
In terms of overall performance, N. Budkov Kjaer has scored 9 points in his last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 points per match, while conceding 11 points, averaging 1.1 points against. A. Pellegrino, however, has scored 13 points, averaging 1.3 points per match, and has also conceded 11 points, averaging 1.1 points against. This indicates that Pellegrino has been more effective in scoring while maintaining a similar defensive record.
Additionally, the absence of head-to-head matches between the two players suggests that this will be their first encounter, making it difficult to predict how they will match up against each other. The surface at Bastad is likely to favor players with strong baseline games, which both players possess, but Pellegrino's recent form may give him a slight advantage.
N. Budkov Kjaer — A. Pellegrino Prediction
Considering the recent forms and statistical analysis, A. Pellegrino is predicted to win this match in a closely contested battle. The forecast suggests a potential scoreline of 2 sets to 1 in favor of Pellegrino, with both players likely to take a set each before Pellegrino clinches the match.
Final score in sets: 2:1
Predicted winner of each set: Set 1: A. Pellegrino, Set 2: N. Budkov Kjaer, Set 3: A. Pellegrino
Expected aces: 5
Double faults: 3
Break points: 4
In terms of tactical expectations, A. Pellegrino may focus on exploiting N. Budkov Kjaer's recent struggles against aggressive baseline play. By maintaining a high first-serve percentage and looking to break early in the match, Pellegrino can set the tone and potentially capitalize on any lapses in Budkov Kjaer's concentration.
3 Reasons Why A. Pellegrino Will Win
Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors A. Pellegrino 2:1 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors A. Pellegrino.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, A. Pellegrino has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than N. Budkov Kjaer, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
DateMatchWSADFBP
13.07.2026 10:00Bastad
N. Budkov Kjaer
A. Pellegrino
12
010101
57
32
45
Where to watch N. Budkov Kjaer vs A. Pellegrino
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