The World Cup has progressed to the quarter-final phase, and the favorites to secure a place in the semi-finals, ranked by likelihood according to Opta, are France, Spain, Argentina, and England. Each of the eight remaining teams boasts favorable statistics from the tournament thus far.
France
Shot-Ending Carries: 33
The French squad’s remarkable ability to navigate past their adversaries is noteworthy. Opta tracks ball carries of at least five meters, detailing whether the play ended with a shot or a chance created. Notably, nine players have achieved at least four productive carries of both categories, including Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Kylian Mbappé, and Michael Olise, with Bradley Barcola just one chance-creating pass away from joining this elite group.
Morocco
Sprints per Kilometer: 0.75
Among the eight remaining teams, Morocco has recorded the highest number of sprints. They have played an extra half-hour compared to some other teams, although it is unlikely that extra time will see much sprinting.
When calculating each team’s total sprints against the distance covered, Morocco stands out with the highest average, indicating their intense running. Competing in air-conditioned stadiums for two of their matches may have aided their performance, suggesting they have the physicality to challenge France.
Spain
Expected Goals Conceded: 1.49
Spain’s average possession closely mirrors that of their Euro 2012 campaign. Although this squad is not as defensive as their predecessors from 14 years ago, their ball control has contributed to an equally impressive defense.
For context, Spain’s expected goals conceded total of 1.49 is notable when compared to Norway, which has allowed at least 1.49 xG in four of their five matches.
Belgium
High Turnovers Leading to Shots: 15
Opta’s high-turnover metric tracks instances where a team initiates an open-play possession sequence within 40 meters of the opponent’s goal. Spain leads this metric with 50, while Belgium follows closely with 41.
Belgium has a significant edge with 15 high turnovers that resulted in shots, marking the highest tally among all teams, while also netting four goals from these situations. This trend may pressure Spain’s defense into making unusual errors.
Norway
Expected Goals-Per-Shot Average: 0.17
Norway’s approach has emphasized quality over quantity. They have taken only four more shots than Cape Verde, despite having played an additional match. Their chances’ average quality, as evaluated by expected goals, surpasses that of any other team.
While five matches create a limited sample size, Norway’s non-penalty xG per shot of 0.17 exceeds the average of any team in Europe’s top five leagues last season.
England
England showcased a powerful attacking display against Mexico, registering six shots with five on target, successfully scoring three times. Their goals, achieved through two tap-ins and a penalty, were classified by Opta as big chances, which are opportunities where “a player should reasonably be expected to score”
Although England struggled with converting such chances earlier in the tournament, they have created more of these goal-scoring opportunities than any other team.
Argentina
Goals from Counterattacks, Set-Pieces, and Penalties: 7
Argentina shares the distinction of being the joint-top scorers with 14 goals. What distinguishes them is their diverse attacking strategy, with no other team matching their scoring frequency outside conventional play, showcasing their ability to dominate opponents in numerous ways.
Argentina netted two counterattacking goals against Austria, two from free-kicks in their match against Jordan, and two via corners to defeat Cape Verde. Remarkably, they can even afford Lionel Messi to miss penalties.
Switzerland
Direct Speed: 1.77 Meters Per Second
At first glance, Switzerland may not seem to be a particularly fast attacking unit, and by the standards of the 48 participating teams, they are not. However, according to Opta’s direct-speed metric—measuring the average speed of ball movement toward the opponent’s goal during sequences—they rank as the fastest among the quarter-finalists.
As Argentina is likely to control possession, Switzerland will need to capitalize on any opportunities that arise.
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