Andrey Rublev’s career baseline win rate hovers around 56%, and he holds a solid 60% on hard courts. However, his recent performance shows a declining trend, with a current two-year trajectory reflecting a struggle to maintain consistency. Known for his aggressive baseline play and powerful serve, Rublev's Elo rating indicates he remains competitive but has faltered in key matches, notably at Wimbledon where he lost to Roman Safiullin.
Arriving at ATP Bastad, Rublev has had mixed results, winning two matches against lower-ranked opponents but suffering two losses in his last four outings. His victories against Sebastian Baez and Andrea Pellegrino demonstrate his ability to compete, yet the defeats hint at underlying issues as he seeks to regain form. With no recent data suggesting he has found his rhythm, Rublev faces a challenge to assert himself against a determined Alejandro Tabilo.
Match results: A. Rublev
17 Jul 2026ATP Bastad
A. Rublev
S. Baez
20
61
62
W
16 Jul 2026ATP Bastad
A. Rublev
A. Pellegrino
21
76
67
63
W
29 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
A. Rublev
R. Safiullin
12
46
63
36
L
24 Jun 2026Exhibition Boodles Challenge
A. Rublev
T. Kokkinakis
12
67
64
410
L
23 Jun 2026Exhibition Boodles Challenge
A. Rublev
A. Shevchenko
21
67
64
103
W
16 Jun 2026ATP Halle
A. Rublev
H. Hurkacz
02
36
26
L
31 May 2026ATP French Open
J. Mensik
A. Rublev
32
63
46
26
63
L
29 May 2026ATP French Open
N. Borges
A. Rublev
01
57
W
27 May 2026ATP French Open
C. Ugo Carabelli
A. Rublev
12
16
61
36
W
25 May 2026ATP French Open
I. Buse
A. Rublev
03
36
36
57
W
A. Tabilo
Player Overview
Alejandro Tabilo has shown flashes of potential, exemplified by a recent Elo rating that reflects his growth on the ATP tour. His career baseline win percentage is around 48%, indicating room for improvement, but his current trajectory suggests he is trending upward. Tabilo's serve-and-volley style has served him well recently, particularly on clay, where he has found more success compared to other surfaces.
Competing in ATP Bastad, Tabilo has secured back-to-back wins against Tomás Martín Etcheverry and Lucas Midon, both matches showcasing his ability to execute under pressure. Prior to these victories, Tabilo faced a string of losses, including a disappointing exit at Wimbledon. The momentum from his recent successes positions him favorably against Rublev, but he must continue to build on this progress to capitalize on his current form.
Match results: A. Tabilo
17 Jul 2026ATP Bastad
A. Tabilo
T. A. Tirante
10
W
16 Jul 2026ATP Bastad
A. Tabilo
L. Midon
21
64
67
64
W
30 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
K. Majchrzak
A. Tabilo
30
63
75
75
L
23 Jun 2026ATP Mallorca
F. Marozsan
A. Tabilo
20
62
63
L
16 Jun 2026ATP London
R. Hijikata
A. Tabilo
20
62
64
L
1 Jun 2026ATP French Open
F. Auger-Aliassime
A. Tabilo
30
63
75
61
L
30 May 2026ATP French Open
M. Kouame
A. Tabilo
12
64
36
46
W
28 May 2026ATP French Open
A. Tabilo
V. Vacherot
10
W
26 May 2026ATP French Open
A. Tabilo
K. Majchrzak
30
61
63
64
W
18 May 2026ATP Geneva
A. Tabilo
S. Wawrinka
00
L
Players Analysis
A. Rublev has shown a solid performance in his recent matches, winning 6 out of his last 10, including a convincing victory over S. Baez in the quarter-finals. His overall form indicates a strong ability to compete at this level, especially on clay, where he has a higher win rate. In contrast, A. Tabilo has struggled recently, with only 3 wins in his last 10 matches, including a loss to K. Majchrzak at Wimbledon. This disparity in form could play a significant role in their upcoming match.
Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors
In their head-to-head encounters, A. Rublev and A. Tabilo have faced each other twice, with each player winning once. However, their most recent match in March 2026 saw Tabilo dominate Rublev, winning in straight sets. This could give Tabilo a psychological edge, but Rublev's recent form and home advantage in Bastad may counteract this. Additionally, Rublev's serve has been more reliable, which could be crucial in tight moments during the match.
A. Rublev — A. Tabilo Prediction
Considering the recent form and head-to-head results, A. Rublev is predicted to win this match. His performance in the quarter-finals and overall stronger track record on clay gives him the edge. The match is expected to be competitive, but Rublev's ability to capitalize on break points and his serving prowess should secure him the victory.
Final score in sets: 2:1
Predicted winner of each set: Set 1: A. Rublev, Set 2: A. Tabilo, Set 3: A. Rublev
Expected aces: 8
Double faults: 3
Break points: 5
In terms of tactics, Rublev is likely to focus on aggressive baseline play, utilizing his powerful forehand to dictate points. Tabilo, on the other hand, may attempt to disrupt Rublev's rhythm with varied shot selection and net approaches. The outcome will largely depend on Rublev's ability to maintain his serve under pressure.
3 Reasons Why A. Rublev Will Win
Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors A. Rublev 2:1 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors A. Rublev.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, A. Rublev has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than A. Tabilo, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
DateMatchWSADFBP
18.07.2026 14:30ATP Bastad
A. Rublev
A. Tabilo
21
101010
85
34
53
Where to watch A. Rublev vs A. Tabilo
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