Argentina’s defensive performance this summer has raised questions about its status as World Cup champions. The team has conceded five goals across matches against Cape Verde, Egypt, and Jordan, managing to keep clean sheets only against Algeria and Austria.
The vulnerability of Lionel Scaloni’s squad against relatively weaker teams should instill confidence in players like Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane. However, despite the outcomes, Argentina’s defensive metrics indicate a stronger underlying process, with an average of just 0.52 expected goals conceded per 90 minutes, bettered only by Spain’s 0.31 among all 48 participating teams.
Considering Argentina faced the lowest-ranked opponents among the four semi-finalists, one would expect them to have allowed fewer chances. They have excelled in limiting the locations of these chances, evidenced by only Uruguay allowing a higher percentage of shots from outside the penalty area, at 56%. Colombia ties with Argentina at 52%, while Ecuador ranks fifth at 45%. This trend reflects a South American defensive strength throughout the tournament.
Argentina shares another commendable statistic with Ecuador: both teams have not allowed a single shot within their six-yard box. This success, although somewhat arbitrary, is marked by a specific line on the pitch. Deroy Duarte’s goal for Cape Verde came from a position very close to this line, as did Dan Ndoye’s goal for Switzerland in the quarter-finals. The significance of this statistic is clear, as shots taken from within the six-yard box have a conversion rate of 27.1%, nearly double the 13.7% success rate for attempts from elsewhere in the penalty area.
England has struggled with scoring from close range, registering only nine shots from inside the six-yard box—fewer than teams like Canada (12), Ecuador (11), and Norway (10), not to mention Spain and Argentina, which both have 10. Nevertheless, set pieces may provide England with greater opportunities to challenge the reigning champions. Argentina has conceded only 0.63 expected goals from set plays, with Cape Verde being the only team to generate more than three corners against them.
The English team has effectively utilized set pieces to create five close-range opportunities. Their three shots within Croatia’s six-yard box all stemmed from corner situations, with similar chances arising against Ghana and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Additionally, Bellingham netted two goals from within six yards against Mexico.
While Argentina may be prepared for the array of threats they will encounter in Atlanta, England’s ability to identify and exploit shooting opportunities that have yet to be allowed could be crucial to their success.
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