22.06.2026
Reading time: 1 min

Prediction Jasmine Paolini vs Tania Maria — 23.06.2026

Jasmine Paolini flag
WTA - 8
Jasmine Paolini - Tania Maria
WTA Eastbourne 1/16-finals
June 23, 2026 11:00
Days
00
Hours
00
Minutes
00
Seconds
00
Tania Maria flag
WTA - 54

Tennis Head-to-Head and Recent Matches

Total games 4
H2H W-L 3-0-1
Avg sets per match 2.25
Last 5 W-L 3-1
Last 3 W-L 2-1
Current streak W2
Sets balance +3
Avg sets (last 5) 2.25
Sets range 2-3
3-set matches 1 (25%)
2-0 / 2-1 split 2/1 • 1/0
75% 3 Wins
0% 0 Draws
25% 1 Wins
Last 4 matches
Date
Match
Score
Tournament
Surface
9 Mar 2024
Tania Maria - Jasmine Paolini
0:2 (3-6, 3-6)
WTA Indian Wells
18 Jan 2024
Tania Maria - Jasmine Paolini
0:2 (2-6, 3-6)
WTA Australian Open
9 Mar 2023
Tania Maria - Jasmine Paolini
2:0 (7-5, 6-1)
WTA Indian Wells
11 Jun 2017
Tania Maria - Jasmine Paolini
1:2 (4-6, 6-2, 1-6)
Marseille
Jasmine Paolini

Player Overview

Across the last 5 matches, Jasmine Paolini posts a 0-0 record, with sets at 0-0. The sample includes opponents such as a mixed opponent pool, which gives a practical read on current form.

For the upcoming fixture, the key point is straightforward: Jasmine Paolini wins when early-game pace is controlled and second-serve drop-offs are limited. This stretch was built on recent events, so match-to-match stability matters more than a single isolated result.

Match results: Jasmine Paolini

27 May 2026 WTA French Open
Jasmine Paolini
Santiago Sierra
1 2
6 3
4 6
3 6
L
25 May 2026 WTA French Open
Jasmine Paolini
D. Yastremska
2 0
7 5
6 3
W
9 May 2026 WTA Rome
Jasmine Paolini
E. Mertens
1 2
6 4
3 6
L
7 May 2026 WTA Rome
Jasmine Paolini
Léa Jeanjean
2 0
6 2
6 4
W
25 Apr 2026 WTA Madrid
H. Baptiste
Jasmine Paolini
2 0
7 5
6 3
L
23 Apr 2026 WTA Madrid
Laura Siegemund
Jasmine Paolini
1 2
6 3
2 6
4 6
W
15 Apr 2026 WTA Stuttgart
Zeynep Sonmez
Jasmine Paolini
2 0
6 2
6 2
L
11 Apr 2026 WTA Billie Jean King Cup
Jasmine Paolini
Moyuka Uchijima
0 0
L
10 Apr 2026 WTA Billie Jean King Cup
Jasmine Paolini
Hikaru Sakatsume
2 0
6 3
6 1
W
22 Mar 2026 WTA Miami
Jelena Ostapenko
Jasmine Paolini
2 1
5 7
6 2
7 5
L
Tania Maria

Player Overview

Tania Maria has a career win percentage of 54.4%, with a recent downturn reflected in a 42.7% win rate over the last two years. While her performance has been stable, her Elo rating of 1966 indicates she is operating below her peak. Maria's serve, with a first-serve win percentage of 65.5%, remains a key weapon, and she will need to leverage this effectively on grass.

Maria's recent form has been a rollercoaster; she secured a victory against Daria Yastremska but faltered against Marie Bouzkova. Her last five matches reflect a win percentage of just 40%, which could spell trouble against Paolini, who is eager to break her losing streak. With both players seeking to regain form, this matchup promises to be a pivotal moment for both competitors.

Match results: Tania Maria

19 Jun 2026 WTA Nottingham
Marie Bouzkova
Tania Maria
2 0
7 5
6 0
L
17 Jun 2026 WTA Nottingham
D. Yastremska
Tania Maria
0 2
1 6
2 6
W
15 Jun 2026 WTA Nottingham
Tania Maria
Jasmine Tjen
2 0
6 3
6 2
W
15 Jun 2026 WTA Nottingham
Tania Maria
Jaqueline Cristian
0 0
L
12 Jun 2026 WTA London
Elena Rybakina
Tania Maria
2 0
7 5
6 0
L
9 Jun 2026 WTA London
Maria Sakkari
Tania Maria
0 2
3 6
3 6
L
7 Jun 2026 WTA London
Tania Maria
Kamilla Rakhimova
2 0
6 4
6 3
W
7 Jun 2026 WTA London
Tania Maria
Lina Miyazaki
2 1
6 2
1 6
6 2
W
4 Jun 2026 Birmingham
Tania Maria
R. Masarova
0 2
4 6
3 6
L
3 Jun 2026 Birmingham
Tania Maria
Linda Fruhvirtova
2 0
6 0
6 1
W

Players Analysis

Jasmine Paolini has shown a mixed form recently, with a win rate of 50% in her last 10 matches. Her performance on clay has been decent, but she has struggled against higher-ranked opponents, as seen in her recent matches at the French Open and Rome. Tania Maria, on the other hand, has a slightly better recent form, winning 50% of her last 10 matches, including a strong performance in Birmingham where she won convincingly against lower-ranked players. Maria's experience and recent success in grass tournaments could give her an edge in this matchup.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

In their head-to-head encounters, Jasmine Paolini has won 3 out of 5 matches against Tania Maria, including their last two meetings in 2024, where she won both in straight sets. Paolini has a career win percentage of 58.3%, while Maria's is slightly lower at 54.4%. On serve, Maria has a higher ace percentage (6.0%) compared to Paolini (2.0%), which could play a crucial role on grass. Both players have shown some inconsistency with double faults, but Maria's overall serve reliability gives her a slight advantage.

Jasmine Paolini — Tania Maria Prediction

Considering the recent form, head-to-head results, and serve statistics, Jasmine Paolini is predicted to win this match in a competitive encounter. The expected score is likely to be 2 sets to 1 in favor of Paolini, with both players showing the potential to take a set. The match could see a few aces from both players, but Paolini's ability to handle pressure in crucial moments may be the deciding factor.

  • Final score in sets: 2:1
  • Predicted winner of each set: 1st set - Jasmine Paolini, 2nd set - Tania Maria, 3rd set - Jasmine Paolini
  • Expected aces: 4
  • Double faults: 3
  • Break points: 5

In terms of tactics, Paolini may focus on her baseline game, looking to extend rallies and exploit Maria's movement on grass. Maria will likely aim to use her serve to dictate play early in the points, but she must be cautious of Paolini's counter-attacking skills. The match could hinge on who can maintain their serve under pressure.

3 Reasons Why Jasmine Paolini Will Win

  • Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors Jasmine Paolini 2:1 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
  • Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors Jasmine Paolini.
  • Pressure Points. In recent matches, Jasmine Paolini has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than Tania Maria, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
Date Match W S A DF BP
23.06.2026 11:00 WTA Eastbourne
Jasmine Paolini
Tania Maria
2 1
1 0 1 0 1 0
43
32
54