R. Noguchi has a career record of 307 wins against 245 losses, reflecting a solid baseline win percentage of 55.6%. Currently, he is experiencing a decline in form, with a win rate of 59.8% over the last two years, down from his historical average. His Elo rating stands at 1855, indicating a competitive edge, particularly on hard courts where he has found more success.
In the lead-up to this match, Noguchi has struggled, winning just two out of his last five matches, highlighted by a recent loss to C. Tabur. This trend of inconsistency is concerning, especially as he gears up to face L. Nardi, who he recently drew against. Without a win in his last two outings, Noguchi will need to find a way to return to form quickly if he hopes to advance in this tournament.
Match results: R. Noguchi
22 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
R. Noguchi
L. Nardi
02
26
36
L
16 Jun 2026Dublin (Ireland) - Qualification
R. Noguchi
C. Tabur
02
46
46
L
15 Jun 2026Dublin (Ireland) - Qualification
R. Noguchi
Hamish Stewart
21
57
64
64
W
14 Jun 2026Dublin (Ireland) - Qualification
R. Noguchi
Paul Jubb
21
64
46
63
W
8 Jun 2026Ilkley
R. Noguchi
Kevin Smith
12
36
64
26
L
7 Jun 2026Ilkley
R. Noguchi
P. Brady
20
61
63
W
19 May 2026ATP French Open
F. Maestrelli
R. Noguchi
21
36
62
L
8 May 2026Wuxi
R. Noguchi
Jing Cui
02
L
6 May 2026Wuxi
Fang Sun
R. Noguchi
10
64
L
5 May 2026Wuxi
R. Noguchi
Petr Bar Biryukov
20
62
75
W
L. Nardi
Player Overview
L. Nardi's career win percentage of 53.8% reflects a level of competence, but he has shown signs of improvement, achieving a win rate of 48.8% over the last two years. His recent form has been somewhat erratic, yet he has managed to win two out of his last five matches, with his Elo rating at 1895 suggesting he can compete at a higher level, particularly on grass.
Nardi enters this match after a draw against R. Noguchi and a previous loss to Riccardo Bertola. Despite these setbacks, his recent victory against Greg Hussey in Nottingham indicates a potential for resurgence. As he faces Noguchi again, Nardi will be keen to leverage his recent experience and capitalize on his opponent's struggles to secure a much-needed win.
Match results: L. Nardi
22 Jun 2026ATP Wimbledon
R. Noguchi
L. Nardi
02
26
36
W
15 Jun 2026Nottingham
L. Nardi
Riccardo Bertola
10
63
W
14 Jun 2026Nottingham
L. Nardi
Greg Hussey
20
63
62
W
13 Jun 2026Nottingham
L. Nardi
O. Weightman
21
36
63
64
W
10 Jun 2026Ilkley
L. Nardi
J. Fearnley
12
64
06
36
L
4 Jun 2026Perugia
L. Nardi
Riccardo Bertola
12
26
64
36
L
2 Jun 2026Perugia
L. Nardi
Oriol Roca Batalla
10
64
W
29 May 2026Chisinau
Giovanni Olivieri
L. Nardi
21
60
36
L
27 May 2026Chisinau
Lorenzo Giustino
L. Nardi
02
46
46
W
25 May 2026Chisinau
Hugo Grenier
L. Nardi
02
46
36
W
Players Analysis
Rio Noguchi has struggled in recent matches, losing his last three encounters, including a straight-sets defeat to Luca Nardi in their latest meeting at the ATP Wimbledon quarter-finals. His recent form shows a win percentage of 50% over the last ten matches, but he has faced tough competition. In contrast, Luca Nardi has been in better form, winning 6 out of his last 10 matches, including a strong performance at the Nottingham Challenger where he reached the finals.
Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors
In their head-to-head matchups, Luca Nardi has won both encounters against Rio Noguchi, demonstrating a psychological edge. Nardi's serve statistics are also superior, with an ace percentage of 5.0% compared to Noguchi's 2.5%. This advantage in serving could play a crucial role in a best-of-five format, especially on grass where serving is paramount. Additionally, Nardi's recent trend shows improvement, while Noguchi's form appears to be declining.
R. Noguchi — L. Nardi Prediction
Given the current form and head-to-head results, Luca Nardi is favored to win this match. His recent performances indicate a strong upward trend, while Noguchi's struggles suggest he may find it difficult to compete effectively. The predicted outcome is a straight-sets victory for Nardi.
Final score in sets: 0:3
Predicted winner of each set: Set 1 - L. Nardi, Set 2 - L. Nardi, Set 3 - L. Nardi
Expected aces: 10
Double faults: 3
Break points: 5
Expect Nardi to leverage his powerful serve and aggressive baseline play to dominate the match. If he can maintain his first serve percentage above 60%, he should be able to dictate the pace and control the rallies, making it difficult for Noguchi to find his rhythm.
3 Reasons Why L. Nardi Will Win
Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors L. Nardi 3:0 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors L. Nardi.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, L. Nardi has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than R. Noguchi, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
DateMatchWSADFBP
22.06.2026 15:00ATP Wimbledon
R. Noguchi
L. Nardi
03
000111
410
32
25
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