16.07.2026

Reading time: 1 min

ATP Bastad

Prediction A. Rublev vs S. Baez — 17.07.2026

Daniel Carter

ATP - 16

A. Rublev - S. Baez

Bastad

July 17, 2026 • 14:00

Days

Hours

Minutes

Seconds

ATP - 65

Tennis Head-to-Head and Recent Matches

Total games 1

H2H W-L 0-0-1

Avg sets per match 2.00

Last 5 W-L 0-1

Last 3 W-L 0-1

Current streak L1

Sets balance 0

Avg sets (last 5) 2.00

Sets range 2-2

3-set matches 0 (0%)

2-0 / 2-1 split 0/0 • 1/0

0% 0 Wins

0% 0 Draws

100% 1 Wins

Last 1 match

Date

Match

Score

Tournament

Surface

16 Jul 2022

S. Baez - A. Rublev

2:0 (6-2, 6-4)

Bastad

—

A. Rublev

Player Overview

Andrey Rublev, with a career baseline win percentage around 56% on hard courts, is currently navigating a challenging patch. His recent form has declined, marked by a troubling trend where he has lost three of his last five matches, including two consecutive defeats at Wimbledon and the Boodles Challenge. This indicates a struggle to maintain consistency, particularly in pressure situations.

Rublev's recent match against A. Pellegrino in Bastad saw him secure a narrow victory, but prior to that, he faced setbacks against R. Safiullin and T. Kokkinakis. With no recent sets won in his last two competitive outings, Rublev must harness his powerful baseline game to regain control. The upcoming match against Sebastián Báez will be crucial for his confidence moving forward.

Match results: A. Rublev

16 Jul 2026 ATP Bastad

A. Rublev

A. Pellegrino

1 0

6 3

29 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon

A. Rublev

R. Safiullin

1 2

4 6

6 3

3 6

24 Jun 2026 Exhibition Boodles Challenge

A. Rublev

T. Kokkinakis

1 2

6 7

6 4

4 10

23 Jun 2026 Exhibition Boodles Challenge

A. Rublev

A. Shevchenko

2 1

6 7

6 4

10 3

16 Jun 2026 ATP Halle

A. Rublev

H. Hurkacz

0 2

3 6

2 6

31 May 2026 ATP French Open

J. Mensik

A. Rublev

3 2

6 3

4 6

2 6

6 3

29 May 2026 ATP French Open

N. Borges

A. Rublev

0 1

5 7

27 May 2026 ATP French Open

C. Ugo Carabelli

A. Rublev

1 2

1 6

6 1

3 6

25 May 2026 ATP French Open

I. Buse

A. Rublev

0 3

3 6

5 7

14 May 2026 ATP Rome

J. Sinner

A. Rublev

2 0

6 2

6 4

S. Baez

Player Overview

Sebastián Báez, a rising star on the ATP tour, has demonstrated a solid baseline game with a current trajectory indicating improvement. His performance reflects a career on an upward curve, especially on clay, where he has shown competence and resilience. Báez's Elo rating places him in a competitive tier, suggesting that he is not just a player to watch but one who can challenge established opponents.

Báez enters this match with a strong showing in Bastad, winning both of his recent matches against J. De Jong and M. Dahlin. His ability to capitalize on opponents' errors and maintain pressure in rallies will be key against Rublev. With a recent win over A. Shevchenko in an exhibition match, Báez seems poised to leverage his current form effectively in this encounter.

Match results: S. Baez

16 Jul 2026 ATP Bastad

J. De Jong

S. Baez

0 2

4 6

2 6

14 Jul 2026 ATP Bastad

M. Dahlin

S. Baez

1 2

6 4

4 6

1 6

29 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon

J-L. Struff

S. Baez

3 2

6 1

4 6

2 6

7 5

25 Jun 2026 Exhibition Boodles Challenge

S. Baez

A. Shevchenko

2 0

6 4

24 Jun 2026 Exhibition Boodles Challenge

H. Hurkacz

S. Baez

2 0

7 5

6 1

23 Jun 2026 Exhibition Boodles Challenge

S. Baez

T. Kokkinakis

0 1

4 6

7 Jun 2026 Prostejov

S. Baez

A. Molcan

2 0

6 4

6 2

6 Jun 2026 Prostejov

S. Baez

N. Sanchez Izquierdo

1 0

6 2

5 Jun 2026 Prostejov

S. Baez

M. Mrva

2 0

6 4

7 5

3 Jun 2026 Prostejov

S. Baez

T. Boyer

2 0

6 2

6 4

Players Analysis

A. Rublev comes into this match with a mixed recent form, having won 4 out of his last 10 matches. His last match was a victory against A. Pellegrino, but he has faced tough competition recently, including losses to players like Hubert Hurkacz and Jiri Lehecka. On the other hand, S. Baez has shown better form, winning 7 out of his last 10 matches, including a recent victory over J. De Jong. Baez's consistency and recent success give him a slight edge in this matchup.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

In their only previous encounter, S. Baez defeated A. Rublev 2-0 in sets at the Bastad tournament in 2022. This historical context, combined with Baez's recent performance, suggests he may have a psychological advantage. Rublev's recent games have seen him struggle with consistency, while Baez has been more reliable, particularly in crucial moments. The surface at Bastad is clay, which tends to favor players with strong baseline games, a category in which Baez excels.

A. Rublev — S. Baez Prediction

Considering the recent form and head-to-head results, S. Baez is predicted to win this match against A. Rublev. The expected score is 2-1 in sets, reflecting a competitive match where Rublev may take one set but ultimately fall short.

Final score in sets: 2-1
Predicted winner of each set: Set 1 - S. Baez, Set 2 - A. Rublev, Set 3 - S. Baez
Expected aces: 5
Double faults: 3
Break points: 4

In terms of tactics, A. Rublev will need to focus on his serve to gain an advantage, as Baez has shown vulnerability against strong servers. However, Baez's ability to return serves effectively and his baseline consistency may counter Rublev's power. If Rublev can maintain his focus and capitalize on break points, he could push Baez to a third set, but Baez's recent form suggests he will likely prevail.

3 Reasons Why S. Baez Will Win

Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors S. Baez 2:1 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors S. Baez.
Pressure Points. In recent matches, S. Baez has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than A. Rublev, which can swing tight scorelines.

Match Prediction

Date Match W S A DF BP

17.07.2026 14:00 Bastad

A. Rublev

S. Baez

1 2

0 1 0 1 0 1