What xG Indicates for the Upcoming Season

As we approach the latter half of the season, the available statistics provide valuable insights into the performance of Premier League teams, allowing us to forecast potential outcomes for the remainder of the year.

Expected goals, or xG, offers a glimpse into how effectively teams are executing the fundamental aspects of football—namely, generating numerous quality scoring opportunities while restricting the opposition to limited, challenging chances.

Historical trends indicate that a team’s xG differential, which reflects their dominance in matches, correlates with their likelihood of achieving success. So, what do the current statistics reveal? If teams maintain their current form, we can anticipate the following…

Title Race and Champions League Spots

Contrary to Pep Guardiola’s assertions, the championship battle appears to be a contest primarily between two teams, with Arsenal emerging as the most formidable squad in the league, suggesting they are strong contenders for the title.

With three Champions League slots seemingly secured, the competition for the remaining spots will likely involve Liverpool, Manchester United, Newcastle, and Chelsea.

In terms of relegation, the fight seems largely settled, as Nottingham Forest and Leeds United have outperformed West Ham considerably in recent matches.

Form and Performance Insights

Aston Villa and Sunderland have recorded results that exceed their overall performances, indicating that their current success may not be sustainable as the season progresses.

Wolves, while not performing at an optimal level, have shown improvement relative to their points tally, making it unlikely they will threaten Derby’s infamous record of just 11 points in a season.

For Arsenal supporters, there’s a positive trend to note: in three of the last four seasons, the team with the highest xG differential has clinched the Premier League title. The only exception occurred in the 2023-24 season when Manchester City triumphed, despite Arsenal boasting superior underlying statistics.

Manchester United’s Surprising xG Ranking

It’s noteworthy that Manchester United currently ranks high in xG, despite the recent dismissal of Ruben Amorim, whose 32% win rate in the Premier League has drawn criticism.

Although his tenure is often viewed as unsuccessful, the Red Devils had been showing signs of improvement under his management before his exit. The newly appointed interim manager, Michael Carrick, takes over a team that has been performing at a level consistent with a top-six club in recent months.

Disparities in xG and Points

An analysis comparing teams’ xG differentials to their accrued points this season illustrates that, generally, most teams’ results align closely with their performance metrics.

However, three teams—Aston Villa, Sunderland, and Wolves—have notably diverged from their xG figures, either positively or negatively.

Aston Villa and Sunderland appear to have already met their seasonal objectives, with Opta estimating a 96% chance of Champions League qualification for Villa and a 99% chance of survival for Sunderland.

Efficiency and Sustainability

This analysis isn’t merely about the perceived merit of their league positions; the goals they have scored and prevented validate their standings. Villa’s success can be attributed to their exceptional long-range shooting, while Sunderland’s goalkeeper, Robin Roefs, has performed remarkably well.

Nonetheless, it’s evident that the accomplishments of both teams are precariously balanced, necessitating further effort if Villa aims for long-term establishment among the league’s elite, and if Sunderland hopes to avoid the pitfalls often faced by promoted teams in their second season.

Villa supporters might argue that their squad has consistently outperformed their xG under Unai Emery, while Sunderland fans may contend that attributes like determination and unity cannot be quantified.

Long-term Success Indicators

However, a review of the xG and points differentials across the 200 Premier League teams during the past decade underscores just how extraordinarily efficient both Villa and Sunderland have been in securing their points this season.

Conversely, Wolves have exhibited play consistent with a relegation candidate, yet their actual performance has improved relative to their earlier point total, indicating their results are beginning to reflect their form.

Two examples of teams that have struggled to maintain an xG advantage this season are Tottenham and Leeds. Initial results misleadingly indicated that Frank’s squad was a strong contender for Champions League qualification, while Farke’s team seemed destined for a battle against relegation.

However, as the season has unfolded, Tottenham’s xG has proven to be significantly poorer than their points total, while Leeds has fared better in contrast.

As the matches continue, the teams’ actual results have gradually aligned more closely with their xG metrics, providing a clearer picture of their true performances this season.

Conclusion

The expected goals metric, while not flawless, has historically proven to be a reliable predictor of a team’s long-term success. Will Arsenal ultimately secure the title they statistically deserve? Will Aston Villa and Sunderland continue to defy their xG numbers? The answers will soon become apparent as the season progresses.