⚽ Villarreal vs Alaves — Analytics and Prediction (10.01.2026)

Introduction

Villarreal will host Alaves in an exciting La Liga encounter at Estadio de la Ceramica. Villarreal, known for their solid home performance, will be looking to capitalize on their form against Alaves, who have struggled on the road this season. Both teams will be eager for points, but with the current statistics, Villarreal seems to hold the upper hand going into the match.

Form Analysis

Villarreal has shown impressive form at home with an 80% success rate in their last five matches. Their attacking prowess and strong defensive structure have allowed them to secure vital wins, making them formidable opponents at home. Players like Gerard Moreno and Arnaut Danjuma have been instrumental in their recent successes, contributing significantly to the team’s goal tally.

On the other hand, Alaves has had a challenging time in their last five away fixtures, managing only a 27% success rate. Their inability to convert chances into goals has cost them dearly, resulting in several disappointing performances. The pressure is mounting on their forwards to improve their output if they hope to gain any points in this upcoming fixture.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the overall statistics of both teams, Villarreal has a clear advantage. They have secured three victories in their last five encounters with Alaves, while the latter has yet to record a win. The average score from their last five meetings stands at 2.2 goals per match, indicating that Villarreal often finds the back of the net against Alaves.

Additionally, Villarreal’s home statistics show that they are adept at maintaining possession and creating goal-scoring opportunities, which contrasts with Alaves, who struggle defensively and have a low conversion rate. The head-to-head record between the two teams further emphasizes Villarreal’s dominance, as they have only lost once to Alaves in their last five meetings.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history between Villarreal and Alaves shows a clear trend favoring Villarreal, with three wins, two draws, and no losses in their last five encounters. Alaves managed a narrow victory in one match, but that seems to be an outlier given Villarreal’s recent performances against them. This historical context will undoubtedly play a role in the players’ confidence heading into the match.

Influencing Factors

The match will take place at Estadio de la Ceramica, a venue where Villarreal has consistently performed well, enjoying significant home support. The weather conditions are also favorable, with a temperature of 12°C and only a slight breeze, which should not impact the players’ performance adversely. Villarreal’s home advantage, coupled with Alaves’s struggles away from home, suggests that the hosts will likely control the game.

Furthermore, the psychological edge Villarreal holds from their previous encounters will be crucial. Alaves will need to overcome their mental barriers against a team that has dominated them in recent years. The combination of these factors points to a challenging outing for Alaves.

Prediction and Justification

Based on the analysis of both teams’ current form, statistical evidence, and historical performance, the prediction leans heavily in favor of Villarreal. Their superior home form and Alaves’s ongoing struggles make it likely that Villarreal will secure a victory. The predicted score for the match is 2:1, reflecting Villarreal’s ability to score while also acknowledging Alaves’s potential to find the net given the right circumstances.