⚽ Tupapa Maraerenga vs Vaivase-Tai — Analytics and Prediction (03.02.2026)

Introduction

As Tupapa Maraerenga prepares to face Vaivase-Tai in the OFC Champions League, the matchup is particularly intriguing given the contrasting trajectories of both teams. Tupapa Maraerenga comes into this match with a recent victory that has boosted their confidence, while Vaivase-Tai has been struggling to find their form, managing only a draw in their latest outing. This clash not only presents an opportunity for Tupapa to assert their dominance but also for Vaivase-Tai to turn their fortunes around, especially considering their historical success against this opponent.

Form Analysis

Tupapa Maraerenga currently exhibits a solid form, having secured a convincing 3-0 victory over Nukuhetulu in their last match. This win marks their first triumph in their recent games, offering a morale boost and a sense of momentum as they approach the match against Vaivase-Tai. With a perfect home record in their last five games, Tupapa will look to leverage their home advantage to continue this positive trend.

On the other hand, Vaivase-Tai’s recent performance has been less than stellar. They have not managed to secure a win in their last ten matches, with their most recent game ending in a disappointing 1-1 draw against Pago. Their away form is particularly concerning, with only one-third of their last five matches resulting in a win. This lack of success on the road will weigh heavily on their confidence going into the match.

Statistical Analysis

When analyzing the statistics, Tupapa Maraerenga appears to have the upper hand. They have shown a strong attacking capability, as evidenced by their recent goal-scoring performance. In contrast, Vaivase-Tai has struggled to find the back of the net consistently, which is reflected in their recent results. Historically, the teams have met once in recent memory, with Tupapa Maraerenga having a notable win of 4-0 against Vaivase-Tai, suggesting they can dominate this matchup if they perform to their potential.

Moreover, the probability of outcomes leans favorably towards Tupapa Maraerenga, with a 45% chance of winning compared to Vaivase-Tai’s mere 10%. These statistics indicate a clear disparity in current form and potential match outcomes, further highlighting the challenges Vaivase-Tai will face.

Head-to-Head History

Historically, the encounters between Tupapa Maraerenga and Vaivase-Tai have been heavily tilted in favor of the former, as evidenced by their previous clash where Tupapa Maraerenga triumphed with a significant 4-0 victory. This prior success adds psychological pressure on Vaivase-Tai as they seek to reverse their fortunes against a team that has had their number in recent matches.

Influencing Factors

The match will take place at Victoria Park, where Tupapa Maraerenga has demonstrated strong home form, winning all their last five matches at this venue. The home crowd will undoubtedly play a crucial role in boosting their performance. Weather conditions should also be favorable, likely providing a conducive environment for an attacking style of football, which plays into Tupapa’s strengths. Conversely, Vaivase-Tai’s struggles on the road will be compounded by the pressures of playing away, especially against a rival that has historically outperformed them.

Prediction and Justification

Given the current form, historical performance, and statistical analysis, it is reasonable to predict that Tupapa Maraerenga will emerge victorious in this match. Their strong home record and recent win should provide them with the confidence needed to secure another win against a struggling Vaivase-Tai. The predicted score for this encounter is 2:0, reflecting Tupapa’s ability to capitalize on their home advantage while keeping Vaivase-Tai at bay.