⚽ Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo — Analytics and Prediction (25.01.2026)

Introduction

The upcoming clash between Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo promises to be an intriguing encounter in La Liga. Real Sociedad, who has shown inconsistent form at home, will be looking to secure crucial points against a Celta Vigo side that has been performing commendably away from home. With both teams aiming for a higher position in the league standings, the stakes are high, and the match is likely to be competitive.

Form Analysis

Real Sociedad’s recent home form has been a mixed bag, with only a 53% success rate in their last five matches. They have struggled to find their rhythm at Reale Arena, which could put them at a disadvantage against Celta Vigo. The team needs to capitalize on their home ground advantage and find a way to convert their chances into goals if they hope to emerge victorious.

On the other hand, Celta Vigo comes into this match with a strong away form, boasting an impressive 87% success rate in their last five away games. This showcases their ability to perform under pressure and suggests they will be a tough opponent for Real Sociedad. Celta’s confidence will be bolstered by their recent results and their capacity to secure points on the road.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the statistics of both teams, Celta Vigo holds a slight edge in recent head-to-head encounters, with three wins out of the last five matches against Real Sociedad. The average score in these meetings has been 1.8 goals per game, indicating a tendency for closely contested matches. Moreover, with only one match exceeding 2.5 goals, both teams have often struggled to find the back of the net against each other.

In terms of overall performance in the league, Celta Vigo’s recent form significantly surpasses that of Real Sociedad, which places them in a more favorable position heading into this match. The probability of a draw or a Celta Vigo win stands at 45%, while Real Sociedad’s chances of winning are only at 10%, highlighting the challenges they face in this matchup.

Head-to-Head History

Looking back at the head-to-head history, the last five encounters have produced an interesting dynamic. Celta Vigo has claimed victory in three of those matches, while Real Sociedad has managed to win only once, and there was one draw. This trend suggests that Celta Vigo has had the upper hand in their matchups, which could play a psychological role in the upcoming game.

Influencing Factors

Several factors could influence the outcome of this match. The weather conditions may play a role in the style of play, as rain could impact the pitch and affect ball control and passing accuracy. Furthermore, playing at Reale Arena, while historically an advantage for Real Sociedad, may not be as significant given their recent home form.

Additionally, the referee for this match, Javier Alberola Rojas, has a reputation for being strict, which could lead to stoppages and possibly impact the flow of the game. Both teams will need to adapt to these conditions to maximize their chances of success.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the current form, head-to-head history, and statistical analyses, Celta Vigo appears to be in a stronger position heading into this match. Their recent away performance and historical dominance over Real Sociedad suggest they will either win or draw this encounter. Therefore, I predict a final score of 1:2 in favor of Celta Vigo, reflecting their capability to exploit Real Sociedad’s vulnerabilities at home.