⚽ Leeds vs Nottingham Forest — Analytics and Prediction (06.02.2026)

Introduction

Both Leeds United and Nottingham Forest come into this match with contrasting ambitions in the Premier League. Leeds, struggling in recent fixtures, needs to secure points to avoid falling deeper into the relegation zone. On the other hand, Nottingham Forest has shown a more resilient form, especially in away games, making them a formidable opponent for Leeds at Elland Road. The historical context of their matchups adds an intriguing layer to this encounter, as past performances could influence the players’ confidence and approach to the game.

Form Analysis

Leeds United has been in a rough patch lately, with their last five home games yielding only a 33% success rate. They have been unable to convert chances effectively and have struggled defensively, leading to a series of disappointing results. The mounting pressure from fans and the need for a turnaround could impact their performance, but they must find a way to capitalize on their home advantage.

In contrast, Nottingham Forest has been enjoying a decent run of form with a 53% success rate in their last five away matches. Their ability to adapt to different game situations has been commendable. With a solid defense and an effective counter-attacking strategy, Forest will look to exploit Leeds’ vulnerabilities and maintain their momentum on the road.

Statistical Analysis

When analyzing the statistics, Leeds has shown a tendency for high-scoring games, averaging 2.4 goals in their last five encounters against Nottingham Forest. However, their inconsistency at home poses a significant risk against a disciplined Forest side. Nottingham Forest has demonstrated better form recently, with a higher average of points per game in away fixtures compared to Leeds’ home performances.

In terms of head-to-head metrics, Leeds has historically had a slight edge, winning four out of the last five matchups. However, the current season’s context shifts the dynamics, as Leeds’ current form does not reflect their historical success against Forest. The probabilities suggest a close contest, with both teams showing a 45% chance of either a draw or a Nottingham Forest win, while Leeds sits at a mere 10% chance of victory.

Head-to-Head History

The recent head-to-head history between Leeds and Nottingham Forest favors Leeds with four victories in their last five meetings. However, this historical dominance may not matter as much, given the current season’s challenges faced by Leeds. Nottingham Forest’s recent performance, including their 3-1 victory over Leeds in their most recent encounter, indicates that they can compete favorably against Leeds despite the historical records.

Influencing Factors

The weather is set to be a crucial influencing factor for this match. With light rain and temperatures around 4°C, both teams will need to adjust their strategies accordingly. The slick pitch could hinder Leeds’ attacking style, which relies on quick passing and movement. Home advantage at Elland Road typically benefits Leeds, but their recent form might not be enough to overcome Nottingham Forest’s confidence.

The referee, P. Bankes, will also play a role in how the game unfolds. His decisions could significantly impact the flow of the match, especially in crucial moments when tensions run high. Given the stakes for Leeds, the pressure could lead to mistakes, which Nottingham Forest could capitalize on to secure points.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the current form and statistical analysis, the prediction leans towards Nottingham Forest either winning or at least securing a draw. Leeds’ struggles at home and Nottingham Forest’s resilience make this match a tough one for the hosts. With the analysis indicating Nottingham Forest’s better performance in recent matches, the predicted score is 1:2 in favor of Nottingham Forest.