⚽ Everton vs Brentford — Analytics and Prediction (04.01.2026)

Introduction

Everton will face Brentford in an intriguing Premier League matchup that promises to showcase the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. Everton, traditionally a strong home side, will be looking to leverage their home advantage at Hill Dickinson Stadium, while Brentford aims to continue their quest for consistency in away fixtures. The interplay between Everton’s defensive solidity and Brentford’s attacking prowess will be crucial in determining the outcome of this encounter.

Form Analysis

In their last five home matches, Everton has struggled to find the winning formula, managing to secure only 47% of possible points. This lack of consistency at home could prove detrimental against a well-organized team like Brentford, which has shown improved form away from home with a 53% success rate in their recent outings. Everton’s recent performances have highlighted a need for more creativity and goal-scoring ability, which could be pivotal in breaking down Brentford’s defense.

Brentford, on the other hand, has shown a slight upward trend in their away performances, capitalizing on their ability to absorb pressure and hit teams on the counter. Their recent form indicates a team capable of causing problems for even the most organized defenses, and they will be looking to exploit any defensive lapses from Everton. The contrast in form between the two sides sets the stage for a competitive match.

Statistical Analysis

Statistically, Everton has a slight edge in recent head-to-head encounters, with two wins, one loss, and two draws in their last five meetings with Brentford. The average score of these encounters has been 1.6 goals per match, indicating a tendency for tight matches. Despite Everton’s home advantage, their overall form this season has not been as strong as they would have hoped, which could play into Brentford’s hands.

Brentford’s ability to draw their last match against Everton and keep a clean sheet in previous encounters suggests that they can defend well against Everton’s attacks. This defensive resilience, coupled with their ability to score on the break, means they pose a significant threat. However, the statistical likelihood of both teams scoring remains low, as indicated by the TB2.5 metric, which has only been met in 1 out of the last 5 encounters.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history between Everton and Brentford reveals a competitive rivalry, with Everton winning two of the last five matches and Brentford securing one victory. The most recent encounters have been tightly contested, including two draws and a low average of goals scored, which suggests a pattern of closely fought games. This history adds an additional layer of intrigue as both teams look to assert dominance.

Influencing Factors

The weather conditions for the match are expected to be cool, with a temperature of 4°C and scattered clouds. Such conditions could influence the pace of the game, potentially favoring a more tactical approach from both sides. The wind speed of 18.756 km/h may also affect long passes and set pieces, which could be critical in a match where both teams are likely to rely on set pieces for scoring opportunities.

Playing at home is typically an advantage for Everton, and the support of the home crowd could be a motivating factor. However, Brentford’s recent improvement in away performances indicates they are not a team to be underestimated, and they will be looking to capitalize on any errors from the home side. The combination of weather, home advantage, and recent form will be key influencing factors in this match.

Prediction and Justification

Given the analysis, Everton is poised to secure a favorable result, either winning or drawing the match. Their historical performance against Brentford, combined with the home advantage and Brentford’s variable away form, suggests that Everton will be able to at least avoid defeat. The likely outcome could be a tightly contested match, with Everton edging it with a score of 2:1, reflecting their need for a strong performance at home while also acknowledging Brentford’s capabilities in attack.