⚽ Burnley vs Newcastle — Analytics and Prediction (30.12.2025)

Introduction

Both Burnley and Newcastle are gearing up for an intriguing clash in the Premier League. Burnley, currently struggling to find their rhythm, will be looking to leverage their home advantage at Turf Moor in hopes of securing vital points. Meanwhile, Newcastle, despite their recent inconsistency, are aiming to capitalize on the opportunities presented by their opponent’s defensive vulnerabilities. Given their historical matchups, this encounter promises to be competitive and closely contested.

Form Analysis

Burnley has had a challenging run in their recent matches, managing only one win in their last ten games. Their last five performances at home saw them secure just 7% form, with a notable lack of offensive output, which has hindered their ability to secure victories. The team has drawn twice and suffered three defeats in their last five matches, highlighting a pressing need for improvement in both attack and defense.

On the other hand, Newcastle has also been struggling, with no wins in their last five outings, recording two draws and three losses. Their form away from home has been slightly better at 33%, but they have failed to convert opportunities into wins. The recent performance against teams like Manchester United and Sunderland shows a lack of clinical finishing, which may affect their confidence going into this match.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the statistical performance of both teams, Burnley’s recent matches indicate a defensive frailty that has led to multiple goals conceded, highlighted by their 2-3 defeat against Fulham. Newcastle, despite their struggles, have managed to score in most of their matches, including a recent 2-2 draw with Chelsea, demonstrating their capability to find the net. However, Newcastle’s away form remains a concern, as they have not capitalized on their chances effectively.

In terms of head-to-head statistics, Newcastle has historically performed better against Burnley, winning the last five encounters with an average score of 2.8 goals per game. This trend could play a significant psychological role in the upcoming match, as Burnley will need to overcome not just their current poor form but also the weight of past results.

Head-to-Head History

The historical matchups between Burnley and Newcastle show a clear advantage for the Magpies, who have won four out of the last five encounters. The most recent victory for Newcastle was a 2-1 scoreline, and they have consistently found ways to breach Burnley’s defense. This pattern could be indicative of a mental edge that Newcastle carries into the upcoming match.

Influencing Factors

The weather conditions at Turf Moor are expected to be chilly, with temperatures around 0°C and a high humidity level of 89%, which may impact player performance and overall gameplay. Furthermore, the home advantage for Burnley could play a crucial role; however, their poor form at home dampens this effect. Newcastle’s struggles away from home may also hinder their performance, as they adapt to the conditions and the pressure of playing at an opponent’s ground.

Additionally, player fitness and morale will be significant factors. Both teams are grappling with injuries and lack of confidence, which could lead to a tight and cautious match.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the current form of both teams, along with Newcastle’s historical dominance over Burnley, it is reasonable to predict that Newcastle will either win or at least secure a draw in this match. Although both teams have underperformed recently, Newcastle’s slight edge in quality and depth may be decisive. Therefore, the likely outcome is a Newcastle win with a predicted score of 1:2.