⚽ Brighton vs Burnley — Analytics and Prediction (03.01.2026)

Introduction

Brighton and Burnley are set to clash in an intriguing Premier League match at Amex Stadium. Both teams come into this fixture looking to improve their standings, with Brighton hoping to leverage their home advantage, while Burnley seeks to secure valuable points on the road. The matchup promises to be competitive given the historical context and current form of both sides.

Form Analysis

Brighton has been struggling lately, recording only 20% form at home in their last five matches. This lack of form is concerning as they look to capitalize on their home ground where the fans expect a better performance. Despite their challenges, Brighton has the potential to bounce back, especially against a team like Burnley, who also has its issues.

Conversely, Burnley has fared even worse with a mere 13% form in their last five away games. Their inability to secure wins on the road has affected their confidence, and they will need to find a way to be resilient in this matchup. Both teams are under pressure to deliver, which could result in a tense and tactical game.

Statistical Analysis

In terms of statistics, Brighton has shown a slightly better overall performance compared to Burnley this season, with a probability of winning at 45% versus Burnley’s 10%. The recent head-to-head encounters also reflect a closely contested rivalry, with Brighton only managing to secure two wins in the last five meetings. The average scoreline in these encounters indicates a slightly higher goal-scoring tendency, suggesting that both teams can find the net.

Burnley’s recent form indicates they struggle to find the back of the net, and this may play a crucial role in their strategy for the upcoming match. Brighton, having more attacking options, may exploit Burnley’s defensive frailties, which could lead to an advantage in the match.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history between Brighton and Burnley shows a closely matched rivalry with no clear dominance. The last five encounters have resulted in 2 wins for Burnley, 0 wins for Brighton, and 3 draws. The most recent matches have seen both teams struggle to secure a definitive victory, indicating a potential pattern of tight contests.

Influencing Factors

The weather conditions on match day are expected to be favorable for football, with a clear sky and temperatures around 1°C. While the cold may affect player performance, it should not significantly hinder the overall match dynamics. The Amex Stadium, known for its passionate home crowd, will provide Brighton with a supportive atmosphere, which could be a decisive factor in their performance.

Home advantage often plays a crucial role in the Premier League, and Brighton will look to utilize this to their benefit. However, Burnley must remain resilient and adapt to the pressures of playing away, which has been a challenge for them this season.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the current form, historical context, and the influencing factors, Brighton appears to have the upper hand in this fixture. Their home advantage and slightly better statistics suggest they can secure at least a draw, if not a win. The match could likely end with a score of 2:1 in favor of Brighton, reflecting their need for points and Burnley’s ongoing struggles on the road.