⚽ Benfica vs Real Madrid — Analytics and Prediction (17.02.2026)

Introduction

Benfica and Real Madrid are set to clash in an exciting UEFA Champions League match. Benfica will be looking to leverage their home advantage against a historically strong Real Madrid side, who are currently struggling to find their rhythm in away games. The match promises to be a thrilling encounter as both teams vie for key points in the prestigious tournament.

Form Analysis

Benfica has shown a commendable performance at home recently, achieving a 60% success rate in their last five matches. Their ability to score goals and maintain a solid defense makes them a formidable opponent on their turf. They will be looking to exploit any weaknesses in Real Madrid’s lineup, particularly given their historical success against this team.

On the other hand, Real Madrid has struggled in recent away fixtures, boasting only a 40% success rate in their last five matches. Despite their storied history in the Champions League, their current form has raised concerns among fans and analysts alike. The team will need to find a way to regain their attacking prowess if they hope to secure a positive result against Benfica.

Statistical Analysis

When delving into the statistics, Benfica has a slight edge with a 45% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 45%, and Real Madrid trails with only a 10% chance of victory. This indicates that bookmakers and analysts see Benfica as the more favorable side going into this match. Additionally, Benfica’s recent home form suggests they can capitalize on their scoring opportunities, while Real Madrid’s struggles away from home may hinder their ability to secure a win.

In their previous head-to-head encounter, Benfica emerged victorious, winning 4-2, showcasing their capability to perform under pressure against elite teams. This historical context adds another layer of complexity to the current form and expectations of both teams.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history shows that Benfica has had the upper hand in their last meeting, winning 4-2 against Real Madrid. This victory not only boosts Benfica’s confidence but also puts them in a psychologically advantageous position ahead of this match. With such a recent victory, Benfica will be eager to replicate this success and assert their dominance once again.

Influencing Factors

Weather conditions may also play a role in the match dynamics. If the weather is favorable, it may aid in a more open and attacking style of play, which would benefit Benfica. Conversely, if conditions are poor, it might favor a more defensive approach, which could play into the hands of Real Madrid if they can withstand early pressure.

Prediction and Justification

Taking into account the current form, historical encounters, and the statistics presented, the prediction leans towards a victory for Benfica, or at the very least, a draw. With their home advantage and recent successful performances, Benfica is well-positioned to claim at least a point from this match. The expected score is likely to be 2:1 in favor of Benfica, reflecting their ability to capitalize on opportunities against a vulnerable Real Madrid side.