⚽ Alaves vs Oviedo — Analytics and Prediction (04.01.2026)

Introduction

Alaves and Oviedo are set to face off in an intriguing La Liga matchup at the Estadio Mendizorrotza. Both teams are struggling at the moment, with a form rating of only 20% in their last five matches. This contest is crucial for both sides as they seek to improve their standings in the league, with Alaves looking to leverage their home advantage against an Oviedo side that has also found it difficult to secure points away from home.

Form Analysis

Alaves has been underwhelming in their recent outings, managing just one win in their last five matches. Their home form has not provided much comfort, which is evident from their 20% win rate in their last five matches at home. This lack of form will weigh heavily on the players, and they will need to find a way to turn their fortunes around quickly to gain momentum in the league. The pressure will be on them to capitalize on their home ground to secure a vital win.

On the other hand, Oviedo has mirrored Alaves’ struggles, also recording a mere 20% success rate in their last five away matches. They have consistently been unable to find the back of the net and will need to improve their attacking output to have any chance of victory. Both teams are in desperate need of a victory to boost morale, making this match pivotal for their campaigns.

Statistical Analysis

When analyzing the statistics, Alaves holds a slightly better record in their head-to-head encounters against Oviedo, having won two out of the last three meetings. The average score from these encounters has been 1.3 goals per match, indicating a tendency for close contests. Moreover, the fact that only one of these three matches resulted in over 2.5 goals shows that both teams struggle to convert chances into goals, aligning with their current form.

In terms of overall probabilities, Alaves has a 45% chance of winning, while a draw also stands at 45%, with Oviedo’s chances lingering at just 10%. This reflects the uncertainty surrounding both teams’ abilities to secure a win, making it difficult to predict a clear victor.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history between Alaves and Oviedo reveals a competitive edge for Alaves, with two wins compared to Oviedo’s one in their last three encounters. The most recent match saw a narrow 2-1 victory for Alaves, which could provide them with confidence heading into this fixture. The previous matches have been closely contested, emphasizing the rivalry and the potential for a tightly fought battle once again.

Influencing Factors

Several factors could influence the outcome of this match. The Estadio Mendizorrotza is known for being a challenging venue for visiting teams, and Alaves will aim to use this to their advantage. Weather conditions on match day could also play a role, as adverse weather could hinder Oviedo’s ability to implement their game plan effectively. Additionally, the psychological pressure of needing a win could affect both teams, but Alaves, playing at home, may handle it better.

Prediction and Justification

Taking into account the current form, head-to-head history, and statistical analysis, it seems that Alaves has a slight edge going into this match. The prediction is that Alaves will secure a win or, at the very least, a draw, given their historical performance against Oviedo and the home advantage they possess. The likely scoreline could be 2:1 in favor of Alaves, reflecting both teams’ struggles in front of goal but leaning towards the home side’s ability to clinch a vital victory.