Newcastle vs Sunderland – Analytics and Prediction (22.03.2026)

Introduction

Newcastle United will host Sunderland in the 31st round of the Premier League, marking another chapter in their storied rivalry. This fixture is particularly significant as both teams vie for crucial points that could impact their standings in the league.

Form Analysis

Newcastle has had a mixed run of form recently, achieving two victories, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Their recent performances include a notable win against Chelsea and a tough loss to Manchester City, showcasing their ability to compete at a high level despite inconsistencies.

On the other hand, Sunderland has shown a slight edge in their recent form, with three wins, one draw, and only one loss in their last five games. Their resilience has been evident, especially in a narrow defeat to Brighton, while they managed a solid performance against Leeds, indicating a team that is gradually finding its footing in the league.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the statistics of both teams, Newcastle has a home performance rate of 60%, which is significantly better than Sunderland’s away performance, which stands at just 27%. This disparity highlights Newcastle’s strength at St. James’ Park, where they have historically been tough to beat.

Additionally, the head-to-head statistics favor Newcastle, who have won three out of their last five encounters against Sunderland. The average score in these matches has been 2.0 goals, suggesting that Newcastle often finds the back of the net against their rivals, while Sunderland struggles defensively in these clashes.

Head-to-Head History

The recent history between Newcastle and Sunderland has been characterized by tight contests, with Newcastle winning three of the last five meetings. However, Sunderland’s ability to snatch victories, including a 3-0 win in their last encounter, adds an intriguing dynamic to this rivalry, reflecting the unpredictability of derby matches.

Influencing Factors

The match will take place at St. James’ Park, where Newcastle enjoys a strong home advantage, amplified by the support of their passionate fans. Current weather conditions include light rain and a temperature of 11°C, which could affect the style of play and player performance, potentially favoring the team that adapts better to tricky conditions.

Furthermore, with the stakes high for both teams—Newcastle aiming to solidify their mid-table position and Sunderland fighting to avoid relegation—the emotional and psychological factors will play a significant role in the match’s outcome. The presence of referee A. Taylor could also influence the game, depending on how he manages the players’ conduct and tackles.

Prediction and Justification

Considering Newcastle’s home advantage, recent form, and head-to-head statistics, I predict that Newcastle will secure a victory against Sunderland, with a probable score of 2:1. While Sunderland has shown improvement, Newcastle’s ability to perform under pressure at home should ultimately tip the scales in their favor.