Everton vs Chelsea – Analytics and Prediction (21.03.2026)

Introduction

In the 31st round of the Premier League, Everton will host Chelsea at Hill Dickinson Stadium. This matchup is critical as both teams vie for vital points to enhance their standings in the league.

Form Analysis

Everton’s recent form has been a mix of results, having secured only two victories in their last ten matches. Their last five games show a troubling trend with two wins but also three defeats, including losses to strong opponents like Manchester United and Arsenal.

Chelsea, on the other hand, has displayed a stronger performance, with three wins and just one loss in their last ten matches. Despite a couple of heavy defeats against Paris Saint-Germain, they managed to deliver a solid 4-1 victory against Aston Villa, showcasing their attacking potential.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing statistical metrics, Everton’s home form stands at 40%, indicating potential struggles to maintain consistency at home. Chelsea’s away form is slightly lower at 33%, which suggests that they too have faced challenges on the road but generally perform better than their upcoming opponents.

Head-to-head statistics reveal that Everton has had the upper hand in recent encounters, winning four of the last five matchups against Chelsea. However, Chelsea’s historical dominance in this fixture cannot be overlooked, as they have won several key encounters, including a decisive 6-0 victory in the past.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history between these two clubs shows a fascinating trend, with Everton winning four of their last five meetings. Chelsea’s last victory over Everton came with a 2-0 scoreline, but overall, Everton has managed to impose themselves against Chelsea in recent seasons.

Influencing Factors

The weather at match time is expected to be mild with temperatures around 10°C and humidity at 69%, which could play a role in the players’ stamina and performance. Playing at home, Everton will aim to leverage their familiar environment, while Chelsea will need to overcome their less favorable away form to secure points.

Additional factors such as referee S. Barrott’s officiating style may impact the game’s flow, and discipline could prove essential for both sides to avoid costly bookings or suspensions.

Prediction and Justification

Considering both teams’ recent form and historical performance against each other, Chelsea appears to have the slight edge, especially given their need for points to climb the table. I predict a closely contested match with Chelsea managing to secure a 2:1 victory, reflecting their ability to capitalize on Everton’s defensive weaknesses while also overcoming their own away challenges.