⚽ Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain — Analytics and Prediction (17.02.2026)

Introduction

In the upcoming UEFA Champions League match, AS Monaco will host Paris Saint Germain (PSG) at the Stade Louis II. Both teams have a rich history and boast talented squads, making this encounter highly anticipated. Monaco, known for their resilience and strong home performances, will look to capitalize on their home advantage against a PSG side that, while loaded with star power, has struggled in recent away matches. The stakes are high as both teams aim to secure crucial points in their quest for glory in Europe.

Form Analysis

Monaco comes into this match with a home form rating of 53%, demonstrating a competitive edge, especially in their own stadium. Their recent performances have seen them manage to secure vital wins, which boosts their confidence. However, their inconsistency can sometimes lead to unexpected results. They will need to be at their best to challenge a formidable opponent like PSG.

On the other hand, Paris Saint Germain has been less impressive in away games, with a form rating of only 33%. Despite their overall strength and talent, their recent performances away from home have raised concerns, particularly in critical matches. This could play a significant role against a well-organized Monaco side that thrives on home support.

Statistical Analysis

Statistically, Monaco has shown to be a tough competitor in their recent head-to-head matches against PSG, with a mixed record that highlights their potential to upset the odds. In their last five encounters, Monaco has achieved three wins, while PSG has only one win, indicating that Monaco can perform under pressure, especially at home.

Conversely, PSG has historically dominated the league but has shown vulnerability this season. Their attacking prowess remains high, yet their defensive frailties in away matches could be exploited by Monaco’s quick counter-attacking style. With an average score of 2.6 goals in their last five meetings, it’s clear both teams can score, but Monaco’s ability to maintain a solid defense will be crucial in this match.

Head-to-Head History

The recent head-to-head history between Monaco and PSG reveals a competitive rivalry. In their last five matches, Monaco has managed to secure three victories, while PSG has won only once, with one draw. This trend indicates that Monaco has had the upper hand in recent times, especially in the context of home games, where they have proven to be a challenging opponent for PSG.

Influencing Factors

PSG must also contend with their recent away form, which could weigh heavily on their confidence. The pressure to perform in the Champions League, combined with their inconsistent results on the road, may lead to increased tension among players. If they can overcome these challenges, their quality and depth could ultimately shine through.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the form, statistics, and head-to-head history, the prediction leans towards Paris Saint Germain, but with caution. The double chance recommendation of PSG or a draw reflects the unpredictability of the match. Monaco’s home advantage and recent success against PSG cannot be overlooked. Thus, the likely outcome may see PSG narrowly securing a victory or the match ending in a draw. The expected score is 1:2, favoring Paris Saint Germain due to their overall quality and experience in high-stakes matches.