⚽ Genoa vs Cagliari — Analytics and Prediction (12.01.2026)

Introduction

Both Genoa and Cagliari are set to clash in an intriguing Serie A matchup, with both teams looking to secure crucial points. Genoa, known for their historic resilience, is struggling to find form this season, while Cagliari has shown more promise in their recent outings, indicating a potential shift in the balance of power between these sides. With the match taking place at Genoa’s home ground, the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, the stakes are high as both teams vie for victory in front of their passionate supporters.

Form Analysis

Genoa’s recent form has been concerning, as evidenced by their last five home matches where they have only managed to secure a mere 13% success rate. This dismal performance reflects a struggling side that has faced challenges in both attacking and defensive phases of the game. The lack of consistency and inability to convert chances have left them vulnerable, making them a team that Cagliari will look to exploit.

On the other hand, Cagliari has displayed a significantly better form in their last five away games, achieving a 33% success rate. Their recent performances suggest a side that is gradually finding its rhythm, with an improved offensive output and a more solid defensive setup. This form gives them the confidence to approach this match with a sense of belief and determination.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the statistics of both teams, Genoa’s struggles are evident. They have not only struggled to score but also have been leaky at the back, failing to keep clean sheets. In contrast, Cagliari’s statistics reveal a more balanced approach, with a higher average of goals scored per match and a better defensive record in recent games. The head-to-head metrics further support this narrative, showing that in their last five encounters, Cagliari has yet to lose against Genoa, with three draws and two wins for Genoa.

The average score in their last meetings stands at 3.6 goals per game, indicating a tendency for high-scoring matches, especially given that four out of the last five encounters have seen more than 2.5 goals scored. This trend suggests that both teams could find opportunities in front of goal.

Head-to-Head History

The historical context of the matches between Genoa and Cagliari reveals a competitive rivalry, with the last five encounters showcasing a balanced outcome. Both teams have shown the ability to score, with Cagliari managing to secure two draws and one win in their last five meetings. The most memorable was the high-scoring 3-3 draw, highlighting that both teams can find the back of the net when they face each other.

Influencing Factors

Playing at home provides Genoa with a potential advantage; however, their poor home form may negate this benefit. The atmosphere at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris can be intimidating for visiting teams, but if Genoa cannot convert this advantage into points, it may not play a decisive role. Additionally, the weather conditions on match day could play a part in the style of play, potentially favoring a more defensive or counter-attacking game, which aligns with Cagliari’s current form.

Cagliari’s confidence from their recent away form could be a critical influencing factor in this matchup. With a more cohesive team performance and a strategy that appears to be working, they will aim to capitalize on any defensive lapses from Genoa, making them a formidable opponent.

Prediction and Justification

Taking into account the current form, head-to-head statistics, and influencing factors, the prediction leans towards Cagliari either winning or drawing the match. Genoa’s difficulties in front of goal and inconsistency at home provide a clear path for Cagliari, who are likely to exploit these weaknesses. Therefore, the expected score is 1:2, with Cagliari emerging victorious or at least securing a point.