⚽ Burnley vs Everton — Analytics and Prediction (27.12.2025)

Introduction

Both Burnley and Everton find themselves in a competitive clash as they aim to secure crucial points in the Premier League. Burnley has struggled significantly this season, especially at home, where they have only managed to secure a single point in their last five matches. Everton, on the other hand, has shown a bit more resilience, particularly in their recent away games, giving them a slight edge going into this match-up. This encounter at Turf Moor promises to be a tightly contested affair as both teams strive for better form and results.

Form Analysis

Burnley has had a challenging run lately, with only two wins in their last ten matches. Their recent encounters have highlighted defensive vulnerabilities, conceding three goals against Fulham and suffering narrow defeats against teams like Newcastle and Crystal Palace. The lack of scoring power, combined with defensive lapses, raises concerns about their ability to secure points in this match.

Everton, however, has displayed better form, with three wins in their last ten matches. Their victory against Nottingham Forest was a standout performance, showcasing their attacking capabilities. Despite recent losses, including a tight defeat to Arsenal, they have managed to maintain a competitive edge in away games, which will be vital in this match against Burnley. Overall, Everton appears to be in slightly better form, while Burnley struggles to find consistency.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the statistics of both teams, Everton holds a significant advantage in terms of away performance. With a 40% success rate away from home in their last five matches, they have shown they can compete effectively outside of Goodison Park. Conversely, Burnley’s home form is concerning, with only a 7% success rate in the same timeframe. This stark contrast highlights the challenges Burnley faces when playing at home.

In terms of head-to-head meetings, Everton has historically had the upper hand, winning four out of the last five encounters against Burnley. The average score in these matches further emphasizes Everton’s dominance, suggesting that they may carry psychological advantage going into this match. The statistics indicate that while both teams have had their struggles, Everton’s recent performances and historical success against Burnley give them a favorable outlook.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history between Burnley and Everton reveals a pattern of Everton’s superiority in past matchups. In their last five meetings, Everton has won four times, with Burnley managing just one victory. The most recent encounters have seen Everton consistently outperform Burnley, indicating that they may have a tactical and psychological advantage in this upcoming clash.

Influencing Factors

The conditions at Turf Moor during the match are expected to be challenging, with temperatures around 7°C and high humidity at 81%. The overcast skies and winds at approximately 28 km/h could impact gameplay, potentially favoring a more physical style of play. Playing at home, Burnley might hope to leverage their familiar surroundings, but their recent form at Turf Moor has not been encouraging.

Additionally, the psychological pressure on Burnley, as they strive to improve their standings, may affect their performance. Everton’s players, with their recent form and history against Burnley, might feel more confident stepping onto the pitch. These factors combined suggest that Everton may have the upper hand in this match, particularly if they can maintain their composure in challenging weather conditions.

Prediction and Justification

In conclusion, the match between Burnley and Everton is poised to be a competitive encounter, but the statistical evidence and form analysis favor Everton. With Burnley’s struggles at home and Everton’s better overall performance, the prediction leans towards an Everton victory or at least a draw. The expected score is 1:2 in favor of Everton, reflecting their ability to capitalize on Burnley’s defensive weaknesses while maintaining their own competitive edge.